AFL · ROUND 21 · MARVEL STADIUM
Carlton v Brisbane Lions
Sat 1 Aug 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 21
BRI to win, 78% chance
CAR 22%78% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 76
MISS Actual margin 76 · 96.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Kemp | FPR | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 46% | 21% | 6% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | FPL | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 48% | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 1.3 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 68% | 38% | 15% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | CHF | 1.2 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 44% | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Talor Byrne | HFFL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 49% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 55% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 48% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 30% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 37% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 24% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 21% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Acres | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 16% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Billy Wilson | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Lord | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Haynes | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Morris | CHF | 2.8 | 1.9 to 3.8 | 0.6 to 5.1 | 84% | 60% | 46% | 29% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.8 | 0.1 to 3.9 | 72% | 48% | 28% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.7 | 0.1 to 3.8 | 70% | 47% | 27% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 64% | 34% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 49% | 23% | 8% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 54% | 27% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | INT | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 37% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 42% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 35% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 37% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 23% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 37% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |