AFL · ROUND 21 · MARVEL STADIUM
Carlton v Brisbane Lions
Sat 1 Aug 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 21
BRI to win, 78% chance
CAR 22%78% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 76
MISS Actual margin 76 · 96.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Haynes | CHB | 6.9 | 4.8 to 9.0 | 2.2 to 11.6 | 84% | 72% | 58% | 46% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.1 | 75% | 62% | 47% | 35% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Blake Acres | WL | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 68% | 51% | 37% | 24% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 5.2 | 3.3 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 59% | 42% | 31% | 20% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | CHF | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 74% | 56% | 40% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Billy Wilson | INT | 5.1 | 3.3 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 74% | 57% | 41% | 27% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 64% | 47% | 32% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 20% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 55% | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 61% | 45% | 31% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WR | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 54% | 40% | 27% | 17% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 48% | 36% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | FPL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 53% | 37% | 24% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Lord | HBFR | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 39% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 38% | 24% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 47% | 29% | 15% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 37% | 21% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 35% | 23% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Talor Byrne | HFFL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 33% | 21% | 13% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 29% | 19% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 36% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 18% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Andrews | FB | 7.5 | 5.3 to 9.7 | 2.6 to 12.4 | 88% | 79% | 69% | 55% | 42% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 7.0 | 4.9 to 9.1 | 2.3 to 11.7 | 84% | 73% | 59% | 46% | 33% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.2 | 1.8 to 10.7 | 78% | 66% | 51% | 36% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | HBFR | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 72% | 59% | 44% | 33% | 22% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 72% | 55% | 40% | 29% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 65% | 47% | 32% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 20% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 65% | 49% | 34% | 22% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 65% | 49% | 33% | 22% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 4.7 | 2.9 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 62% | 45% | 27% | 17% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 54% | 37% | 23% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 51% | 31% | 20% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 57% | 42% | 29% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 58% | 43% | 29% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 48% | 32% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 54% | 36% | 23% | 13% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 52% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 41% | 26% | 15% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 44% | 31% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 50% | 30% | 16% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |