AFL · ROUND 21 · MCG
Collingwood v Geelong Cats
Thu 30 Jul 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
COL by 2
COL to win, 53% chance
COL 53%47% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 25
MISS Actual margin 25 · 26.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | RR | 32.8 | 28.3 to 37.2 | 21.4 to 44.2 | 99% | 97% | 87% | 66% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 35.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 26.7 | 22.7 to 30.8 | 16.3 to 37.1 | 95% | 86% | 62% | 27% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | INT | 24.3 | 20.4 to 28.2 | 14.3 to 34.3 | 97% | 84% | 53% | 20% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 22.3 | 18.6 to 26.1 | 12.7 to 32.0 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WL | 21.1 | 17.4 to 24.7 | 11.6 to 30.5 | 87% | 60% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 21.0 | 17.3 to 24.6 | 11.6 to 30.4 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WR | 20.2 | 16.6 to 23.8 | 10.9 to 29.5 | 84% | 53% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 19.7 | 16.2 to 23.3 | 10.6 to 28.9 | 83% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 19.0 | 15.5 to 22.6 | 10.0 to 28.1 | 77% | 41% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | 18.9 | 15.4 to 22.4 | 9.9 to 27.9 | 76% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Edward Allan | C | 18.3 | 14.8 to 21.8 | 9.4 to 27.2 | 73% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 18.0 | 14.6 to 21.4 | 9.2 to 26.8 | 72% | 29% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Harry Perryman | BPR | 17.6 | 14.2 to 21.0 | 8.9 to 26.3 | 70% | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Ned Long | CHF | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.5 | 7.7 to 24.6 | 61% | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.1 | 6.0 to 21.9 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 13.9 | 10.8 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.8 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 12.4 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Angus Anderson | FPL | 11.4 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | INT | 11.0 | 8.1 to 13.8 | 3.7 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FF | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.5 | 3.6 to 17.9 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Liam Puncher | INT | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.5 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Charlie West | INT | 8.8 | 6.2 to 11.4 | 2.2 to 15.4 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 32.7 | 28.2 to 37.1 | 21.3 to 44.0 | 99% | 97% | 87% | 65% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | HBFR | 23.0 | 19.2 to 26.8 | 13.2 to 32.8 | 93% | 72% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 22.5 | 18.7 to 26.3 | 12.8 to 32.2 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPL | 22.2 | 18.4 to 25.9 | 12.6 to 31.8 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 21.4 | 17.7 to 25.1 | 11.9 to 30.9 | 88% | 63% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 20.7 | 17.0 to 24.3 | 11.3 to 30.0 | 86% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 20.0 | 16.4 to 23.6 | 10.8 to 29.2 | 84% | 53% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 19.5 | 16.0 to 23.1 | 10.4 to 28.7 | 82% | 50% | 15% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | FPL | 18.3 | 14.8 to 21.7 | 9.4 to 27.2 | 73% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 17.4 | 14.0 to 20.8 | 8.7 to 26.1 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Jhye Clark | INT | 16.4 | 13.1 to 19.7 | 7.9 to 24.9 | 63% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 16.3 | 13.0 to 19.6 | 7.8 to 24.7 | 61% | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 14.8 | 11.6 to 18.0 | 6.6 to 22.9 | 49% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | BPR | 14.6 | 11.5 to 17.8 | 6.5 to 22.8 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 13.8 | 10.8 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.8 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 12.3 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jack Henry | CHB | 12.1 | 9.2 to 15.1 | 4.6 to 19.7 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 11.7 | 8.8 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.1 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Oliver Henry | CHF | 10.9 | 8.1 to 13.7 | 3.7 to 18.0 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | INT | 10.9 | 8.1 to 13.7 | 3.7 to 18.1 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jack Martin | INT | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.6 | 3.7 to 18.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.6 | 3.6 to 18.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 9.8 | 7.1 to 12.5 | 2.9 to 16.7 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |