AFL · ROUND 21 · MCG
Collingwood v Geelong Cats
Thu 30 Jul 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
COL by 2
COL to win, 53% chance
COL 53%47% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 25
MISS Actual margin 25 · 26.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | RR | 116 | 99 to 132 | 74 to 157 | 97% | 92% | 85% | 73% | 59% | inside our 50% range: 109 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 103 | 87 to 119 | 63 to 143 | 91% | 82% | 68% | 56% | 39% | inside our 90% range: 120 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 138 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 48% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 117 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 95 | 79 to 111 | 56 to 135 | 88% | 76% | 61% | 44% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Scott Pendlebury | INT | 84 | 68 to 99 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Jack Crisp | WL | 83 | 68 to 99 | 45 to 122 | 78% | 60% | 39% | 23% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WR | 80 | 65 to 96 | 43 to 118 | 71% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 58% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Edward Allan | C | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 112 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Ned Long | CHF | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Harry Perryman | BPR | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 49% | 30% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Daniel McStay | FF | 67 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 118 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 27 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Angus Anderson | FPL | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Harvey Harrison | INT | 51 | 37 to 65 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Liam Puncher | INT | 44 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Charlie West | INT | 42 | 29 to 55 | 9 to 75 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 115 | 98 to 132 | 74 to 156 | 96% | 91% | 85% | 71% | 58% | outside our 90% range: 73 |
| Tanner Bruhn | HBFR | 91 | 76 to 107 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 74% | 56% | 38% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 86 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 80% | 66% | 44% | 28% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Tom Stewart | BPL | 86 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 80% | 66% | 44% | 28% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 84 | 69 to 99 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 84 | 69 to 99 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 125 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 82 | 67 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 57% | 37% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Shaun Mannagh | FPL | 78 | 62 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| James Worpel | INT | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 49% | 30% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Jhye Clark | INT | 66 | 51 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 66 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 42% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Mark O'Connor | BPR | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 38% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 15 |
| Jack Henry | CHB | 59 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 25% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Oliver Henry | CHF | 56 | 42 to 71 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Jack Martin | INT | 50 | 37 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | INT | 50 | 36 to 64 | 15 to 84 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 49 | 36 to 63 | 15 to 84 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |