AFL · ROUND 21 · MCG
Collingwood v Geelong Cats
Thu 30 Jul 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
COL by 2
COL to win, 53% chance
COL 53%47% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 25
MISS Actual margin 25 · 26.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 68% | 37% | 16% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FF | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 49% | 24% | 8% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 62% | 31% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Anderson | FPL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 35% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Daicos | RR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 29% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 39% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Long | CHF | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 34% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 26% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 29% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie West | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 22% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Edward Allan | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Puncher | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Perryman | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Neale | FF | 1.7 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 71% | 40% | 18% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Henry | CHF | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 43% | 19% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | FPL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 56% | 28% | 10% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Martin | INT | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 58% | 23% | 7% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 42% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 37% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 24% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 28% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 23% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 28% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jhye Clark | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Henry | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |