AFL · ROUND 21 · MCG
Collingwood v Geelong Cats
Thu 30 Jul 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
COL by 2
COL to win, 53% chance
COL 53%47% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 25
MISS Actual margin 25 · 26.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ned Long | CHF | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.3 to 9.0 | 76% | 61% | 45% | 30% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Edward Allan | C | 4.7 | 3.1 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.4 | 71% | 54% | 39% | 27% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.9 | 71% | 57% | 37% | 25% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 60% | 41% | 27% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 61% | 44% | 25% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 53% | 33% | 19% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Nick Daicos | RR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 55% | 34% | 20% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 38% | 21% | 12% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Angus Anderson | FPL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 29% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 39% | 23% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 33% | 18% | 9% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 30% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 35% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 25% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 30% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harry Perryman | BPR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 29% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Liam Puncher | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie West | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Atkins | RR | 5.8 | 4.0 to 7.7 | 1.7 to 9.9 | 85% | 73% | 61% | 49% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.3 | 70% | 53% | 38% | 25% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 63% | 47% | 32% | 22% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 61% | 44% | 25% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | FPL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 41% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | HBFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 42% | 26% | 15% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 35% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 38% | 22% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 26% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jhye Clark | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 28% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 21% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 21% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 17% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Martin | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 23% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 23% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Henry | CHF | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | BPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Henry | CHB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |