AFL · ROUND 21 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v Adelaide Crows
Sun 2 Aug 2026, 4:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 37
ADE to win, 91% chance
ESS 9%91% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 72
HIT Actual margin 72 · 35.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 28.7 | 24.5 to 32.9 | 17.9 to 39.4 | 97% | 89% | 72% | 41% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Archie Roberts | CHB | 27.8 | 23.7 to 31.9 | 17.2 to 38.4 | 95% | 88% | 69% | 35% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Sam Durham | C | 24.0 | 20.1 to 27.8 | 14.0 to 33.9 | 97% | 82% | 50% | 19% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 22.6 | 18.8 to 26.4 | 12.9 to 32.3 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Will Setterfield | INT | 22.6 | 18.8 to 26.3 | 12.9 to 32.3 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 22.2 | 18.5 to 26.0 | 12.6 to 31.9 | 92% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | HBFL | 20.7 | 17.1 to 24.4 | 11.4 to 30.1 | 86% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | R | 20.6 | 16.9 to 24.2 | 11.2 to 29.9 | 86% | 58% | 23% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 20.5 | 16.9 to 24.1 | 11.2 to 29.8 | 85% | 57% | 22% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Zak Johnson | BPR | 18.0 | 14.6 to 21.5 | 9.2 to 26.9 | 72% | 29% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Angus Clarke | WL | 16.4 | 13.0 to 19.7 | 7.9 to 24.8 | 62% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Kyle Langford | HFFL | 16.3 | 13.0 to 19.6 | 7.8 to 24.7 | 61% | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Jaxon Artemis | WR | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.5 | 7.7 to 24.6 | 61% | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 15.8 | 12.5 to 19.0 | 7.4 to 24.1 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 12.6 | 9.6 to 15.6 | 5.0 to 20.2 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.1 | 4.7 to 19.7 | 24% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | HFFR | 12.1 | 9.2 to 15.1 | 4.6 to 19.7 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 11.7 | 8.8 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.1 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 11.1 | 8.3 to 13.9 | 3.8 to 18.4 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.5 | 3.6 to 17.9 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 10.0 | 7.3 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 17.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | FPR | 9.7 | 7.0 to 12.4 | 2.8 to 16.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Rhys Unwin | INT | 9.7 | 7.1 to 12.4 | 2.9 to 16.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 27.0 | 22.9 to 31.1 | 16.5 to 37.4 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 29% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Izak Rankine | RR | 26.7 | 22.6 to 30.7 | 16.2 to 37.1 | 95% | 86% | 62% | 26% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 23.0 | 19.2 to 26.9 | 13.3 to 32.8 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 20.9 | 17.2 to 24.5 | 11.5 to 30.2 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Jake Soligo | FPL | 20.6 | 16.9 to 24.2 | 11.2 to 29.9 | 86% | 58% | 23% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 19.6 | 16.1 to 23.2 | 10.5 to 28.8 | 83% | 51% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 19.1 | 15.6 to 22.7 | 10.1 to 28.2 | 81% | 48% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | R | 18.7 | 15.2 to 22.2 | 9.8 to 27.7 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | HFFL | 18.3 | 14.9 to 21.8 | 9.4 to 27.2 | 74% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Mark Keane | CHB | 18.3 | 14.8 to 21.8 | 9.4 to 27.2 | 74% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 17.9 | 14.5 to 21.3 | 9.1 to 26.7 | 72% | 34% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | HBFL | 17.4 | 14.0 to 20.8 | 8.7 to 26.1 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.5 | 7.8 to 24.7 | 61% | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.3 | 7.6 to 24.5 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Billy Dowling | INT | 15.9 | 12.7 to 19.2 | 7.5 to 24.3 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 15.0 | 11.8 to 18.2 | 6.8 to 23.1 | 52% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Callum Ah Chee | WL | 14.5 | 11.4 to 17.7 | 6.4 to 22.6 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 13.3 | 10.3 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Oscar Ryan | HBFR | 13.3 | 10.3 to 16.4 | 5.5 to 21.2 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 13.3 | 10.2 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.0 | 35% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 13.0 | 10.0 to 16.0 | 5.3 to 20.8 | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.7 | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Archie Ludowyke | INT | 10.5 | 7.7 to 13.2 | 3.4 to 17.6 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |