AFL · ROUND 21 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v Adelaide Crows
Sun 2 Aug 2026, 4:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 37
ADE to win, 91% chance
ESS 9%91% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 72
HIT Actual margin 72 · 35.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 108 | 92 to 124 | 67 to 148 | 94% | 88% | 76% | 62% | 48% | inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Archie Roberts | CHB | 103 | 86 to 119 | 62 to 143 | 91% | 82% | 67% | 56% | 39% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Sam Durham | C | 96 | 80 to 112 | 57 to 136 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 45% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 95 | 79 to 111 | 56 to 135 | 88% | 76% | 61% | 44% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 89 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 127 | 84% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Jaxon Prior | HBFL | 88 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 48% | 30% | 17% | outside our 90% range: 40 |
| Dyson Sharp | R | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 43% | 28% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Will Setterfield | INT | 85 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 63% | 41% | 26% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 104 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Angus Clarke | WL | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 26 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Kyle Langford | HFFL | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 76 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 110 |
| Zak Johnson | BPR | 74 | 59 to 89 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 70 | 56 to 85 | 34 to 107 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Jaxon Artemis | WR | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | HFFR | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 31% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 58 | 44 to 72 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Hussien El Achkar | FPR | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 51 | 37 to 65 | 16 to 85 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Rhys Unwin | INT | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 84 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 111 | 94 to 127 | 70 to 152 | 95% | 89% | 79% | 66% | 52% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Izak Rankine | RR | 106 | 90 to 123 | 66 to 147 | 93% | 86% | 73% | 60% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 121 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 94 | 78 to 110 | 55 to 134 | 87% | 75% | 60% | 40% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 92 | 76 to 107 | 53 to 131 | 85% | 74% | 57% | 38% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Daniel Curtin | R | 89 | 73 to 105 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 69% | 51% | 33% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Jake Soligo | FPL | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 62% | 40% | 25% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 39 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | HFFL | 83 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 121 | 76% | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Mark Keane | CHB | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 117 | 69% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 127 |
| Isaac Cumming | HBFL | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 78 | 62 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 60% | 43% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 55% | 39% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Callum Ah Chee | WL | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 55% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Billy Dowling | INT | 68 | 53 to 83 | 31 to 104 | 47% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 107 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 62 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| James Borlase | FB | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Oscar Ryan | HBFR | 59 | 45 to 73 | 24 to 94 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Archie Ludowyke | INT | 48 | 34 to 61 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |