AFL · ROUND 21 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v Adelaide Crows
Sun 2 Aug 2026, 4:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 37
ADE to win, 91% chance
ESS 9%91% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 72
HIT Actual margin 72 · 35.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 61% | 38% | 19% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 58% | 29% | 11% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | FPR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 28% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 37% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kyle Langford | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 26% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Durham | C | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 27% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaxon Artemis | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 23% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rhys Unwin | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Clarke | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Will Setterfield | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Archie Roberts | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zak Johnson | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 2.1 | 1.3 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.1 | 77% | 53% | 31% | 15% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 2.1 | 1.3 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.1 | 77% | 53% | 31% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 63% | 40% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 43% | 19% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 61% | 30% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | HFFL | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 49% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Izak Rankine | RR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 26% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Callum Ah Chee | WL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 37% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Soligo | FPL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 37% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Dowling | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Archie Ludowyke | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 21% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | HBFL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oscar Ryan | HBFR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 19% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark Keane | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |