AFL · ROUND 21 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v Adelaide Crows
Sun 2 Aug 2026, 4:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 37
ADE to win, 91% chance
ESS 9%91% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 72
HIT Actual margin 72 · 35.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 6.0 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.6 to 10.4 | 75% | 61% | 47% | 32% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.8 | 67% | 55% | 41% | 28% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Archie Roberts | CHB | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 68% | 51% | 37% | 25% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 74% | 57% | 41% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Angus Clarke | WL | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 67% | 47% | 34% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | HBFL | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.7 | 0.9 to 8.9 | 58% | 42% | 29% | 16% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kyle Langford | HFFL | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 60% | 43% | 30% | 18% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 49% | 29% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 47% | 34% | 22% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 48% | 36% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 48% | 35% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Zak Johnson | BPR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 50% | 38% | 25% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 56% | 38% | 24% | 13% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Sam Durham | C | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 51% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Will Setterfield | INT | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 40% | 26% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | R | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 42% | 29% | 18% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 22% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 23% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jaxon Artemis | WR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Rhys Unwin | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 18% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | FPR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 15% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.6 | 77% | 63% | 50% | 35% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 71% | 58% | 44% | 31% | 21% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Mark Keane | CHB | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 66% | 49% | 35% | 23% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 61% | 44% | 32% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 64% | 46% | 32% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 0.9 to 8.9 | 59% | 42% | 30% | 17% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 60% | 44% | 29% | 19% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Callum Ah Chee | WL | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.7 | 59% | 43% | 29% | 18% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | R | 4.7 | 2.9 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 52% | 37% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | HBFL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 56% | 40% | 26% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 54% | 40% | 28% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 45% | 31% | 20% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 50% | 38% | 25% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | HFFL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 40% | 26% | 16% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Izak Rankine | RR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 42% | 28% | 18% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Billy Dowling | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 45% | 30% | 18% | 10% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 37% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 41% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Oscar Ryan | HBFR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 37% | 23% | 14% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Soligo | FPL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 35% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Archie Ludowyke | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 37% | 22% | 10% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |