AFL · ROUND 21 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v Adelaide Crows
Sun 2 Aug 2026, 4:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 37
ADE to win, 91% chance
ESS 9%91% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 72
HIT Actual margin 72 · 35.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 28.7 / inside our 50% range: 28.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 4.7 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 108 / inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Archie Roberts | CHB | 27.8 / inside our 50% range: 26.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.3 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 103 / inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Sam Durham | C | 24.0 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 96 / inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 22.6 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.0 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 95 / inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Will Setterfield | INT | 22.6 / inside our 90% range: 28.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.7 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 85 / inside our 90% range: 104 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 22.2 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 89 / inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Jaxon Prior | HBFL | 20.7 / outside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 88 / outside our 90% range: 40 |
| Dyson Sharp | R | 20.6 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.7 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 86 / inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 20.5 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.1 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 78 / inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Zak Johnson | BPR | 18.0 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 74 / inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Angus Clarke | WL | 16.4 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 0.3 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.0 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 78 / outside our 90% range: 26 |
| Kyle Langford | HFFL | 16.3 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 77 / inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Jaxon Artemis | WR | 16.2 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 68 / inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 15.8 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.5 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 70 / inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 12.6 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 1.5 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 76 / inside our 90% range: 110 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 12.2 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 62 / inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | HFFR | 12.1 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.4 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 62 / inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 11.7 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 80 / inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 11.1 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 51 / inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 10.7 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.9 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 58 / inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 10.0 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.3 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 65 / inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Hussien El Achkar | FPR | 9.7 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.8 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 53 / inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Rhys Unwin | INT | 9.7 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 50 / inside our 90% range: 29 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 27.0 / inside our 50% range: 30.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 5.5 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 111 / inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Izak Rankine | RR | 26.7 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 0.9 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 106 / inside our 50% range: 121 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 23.0 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 94 / inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 20.9 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 80 / inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Jake Soligo | FPL | 20.6 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 84 / inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 19.6 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 84 / outside our 90% range: 39 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 19.1 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 77 / inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Daniel Curtin | R | 18.7 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 89 / inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | HFFL | 18.3 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 83 / inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Mark Keane | CHB | 18.3 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.3 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 79 / inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 17.9 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 77 / inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Isaac Cumming | HBFL | 17.4 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 78 / inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 16.2 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 78 / inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 16.1 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 81 / inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Billy Dowling | INT | 15.9 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.7 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 4.0 / outside our 90% range: 11.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 68 / outside our 90% range: 107 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 15.0 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 62 / inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Callum Ah Chee | WL | 14.5 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.8 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 73 / inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 13.3 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 92 / inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Oscar Ryan | HBFR | 13.3 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 59 / inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 13.3 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 2.1 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 5.6 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 1.3 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 79 / outside our 90% range: 127 |
| James Borlase | FB | 13.0 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 60 / inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 12.9 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 5.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 74 / inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Archie Ludowyke | INT | 10.5 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 48 / inside our 50% range: 50 |