AFL · ROUND 21 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Western Bulldogs
Fri 31 Jul 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 33
FRE to win, 89% chance
FRE 89%11% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 37
HIT Actual margin 37 · 3.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 28.7 | 24.5 to 32.8 | 17.9 to 39.4 | 97% | 89% | 72% | 40% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 26.9 | 22.8 to 31.0 | 16.4 to 37.4 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 28% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 24.6 | 20.6 to 28.5 | 14.5 to 34.6 | 97% | 84% | 55% | 21% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 24.3 | 20.4 to 28.2 | 14.3 to 34.3 | 97% | 83% | 53% | 20% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 24.0 | 20.1 to 27.9 | 14.0 to 34.0 | 97% | 82% | 51% | 19% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 22.3 | 18.5 to 26.0 | 12.6 to 31.9 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 22.2 | 18.5 to 26.0 | 12.6 to 31.9 | 92% | 69% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | INT | 21.9 | 18.2 to 25.7 | 12.3 to 31.5 | 90% | 67% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 20.0 | 16.4 to 23.6 | 10.8 to 29.3 | 85% | 54% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WL | 19.8 | 16.2 to 23.4 | 10.6 to 29.0 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 19.5 | 15.9 to 23.0 | 10.3 to 28.6 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 19.4 | 15.9 to 23.0 | 10.3 to 28.5 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 17.7 | 14.3 to 21.1 | 8.9 to 26.4 | 71% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.3 | 6.9 to 23.3 | 53% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Michael Frederick | WR | 13.7 | 10.7 to 16.8 | 5.8 to 21.6 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 13.4 | 10.3 to 16.4 | 5.6 to 21.2 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 13.2 | 10.2 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 21.0 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPL | 13.1 | 10.1 to 16.1 | 5.4 to 20.9 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | CHF | 12.3 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.7 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 12.1 | 9.2 to 15.1 | 4.6 to 19.7 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 11.3 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 10.5 | 7.7 to 13.2 | 3.4 to 17.6 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 9.0 | 6.4 to 11.6 | 2.3 to 15.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Richards | R | 25.9 | 21.9 to 30.0 | 15.7 to 36.2 | 94% | 82% | 56% | 22% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 25.9 | 21.9 to 29.9 | 15.6 to 36.2 | 94% | 82% | 56% | 21% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | RR | 24.1 | 20.2 to 28.0 | 14.1 to 34.1 | 97% | 82% | 52% | 19% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | INT | 22.3 | 18.5 to 26.1 | 12.6 to 31.9 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | FPR | 20.6 | 17.0 to 24.2 | 11.3 to 29.9 | 86% | 58% | 23% | 5% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Bailey Williams | HBFR | 20.2 | 16.6 to 23.8 | 10.9 to 29.5 | 84% | 53% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Joel Freijah | WL | 19.2 | 15.7 to 22.7 | 10.1 to 28.3 | 82% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.8 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Jedd Busslinger | CHB | 16.5 | 13.2 to 19.9 | 8.0 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 14.9 | 11.7 to 18.0 | 6.7 to 23.0 | 50% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Nick Coffield | INT | 14.7 | 11.5 to 17.9 | 6.6 to 22.8 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 13.6 | 10.5 to 16.7 | 5.7 to 21.5 | 36% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 13.5 | 10.5 to 16.6 | 5.7 to 21.4 | 34% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Rhylee West | HFFL | 12.7 | 9.7 to 15.7 | 5.1 to 20.4 | 29% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Buku Khamis | BPR | 12.3 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Laitham Vandermeer | INT | 12.3 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| James O'Donnell | FB | 11.1 | 8.3 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.4 | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Sam Davidson | FPL | 10.9 | 8.1 to 13.7 | 3.7 to 18.1 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Josh Dolan | INT | 10.6 | 7.8 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.7 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Rory Lobb | CHF | 10.3 | 7.6 to 13.1 | 3.3 to 17.4 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 10.1 | 7.4 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.1 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jordan Croft | FF | 8.2 | 5.7 to 10.7 | 1.7 to 14.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Louis Emmett | INT | 7.6 | 5.1 to 10.0 | 1.3 to 13.8 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |