AFL · ROUND 21 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Western Bulldogs
Fri 31 Jul 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 33
FRE to win, 89% chance
FRE 89%11% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 37
HIT Actual margin 37 · 3.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 107 | 91 to 123 | 66 to 148 | 93% | 87% | 74% | 62% | 47% | inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 103 | 86 to 119 | 62 to 143 | 91% | 82% | 67% | 56% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 52% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 92 | 76 to 108 | 53 to 131 | 86% | 74% | 57% | 39% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 90 | 75 to 106 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 72% | 53% | 36% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 88 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 48% | 30% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 88 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 48% | 30% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 126 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 87 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 126 | 82% | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Matthew Johnson | INT | 82 | 66 to 97 | 43 to 120 | 71% | 56% | 37% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Neil Erasmus | WL | 78 | 62 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 45% | 29% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 114 | 58% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 71 | 56 to 85 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Michael Frederick | WR | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 68 | 53 to 83 | 31 to 104 | 47% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 28 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 65 | 50 to 79 | 29 to 101 | 36% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Isaiah Dudley | CHF | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPL | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 103 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 84 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 50 | 36 to 63 | 15 to 84 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Richards | R | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 138 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 48% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 97 | 81 to 113 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 64% | 46% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Tim English | RK | 87 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Ryley Sanders | RR | 81 | 65 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Bailey Williams | HBFR | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Matthew Kennedy | FPR | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 117 | 68% | 50% | 34% | 19% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 35 |
| Tom Liberatore | INT | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Joel Freijah | WL | 75 | 60 to 90 | 37 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 75 | 60 to 90 | 37 to 112 | 56% | 40% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Jedd Busslinger | CHB | 67 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Rory Lobb | CHF | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Rhylee West | HFFL | 61 | 47 to 76 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 60 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Nick Coffield | INT | 59 | 45 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Buku Khamis | BPR | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| James O'Donnell | FB | 52 | 38 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Sam Davidson | FPL | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 87 | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 49 | 36 to 63 | 15 to 84 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Laitham Vandermeer | INT | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 84 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Josh Dolan | INT | 48 | 34 to 61 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Jordan Croft | FF | 44 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21 |
| Louis Emmett | INT | 38 | 25 to 52 | 6 to 71 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8 |