AFL · ROUND 21 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Western Bulldogs
Fri 31 Jul 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 33
FRE to win, 89% chance
FRE 89%11% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 37
HIT Actual margin 37 · 3.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jye Amiss | FF | 2.3 | 1.5 to 3.2 | 0.3 to 4.4 | 81% | 57% | 34% | 16% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 2.1 | 1.3 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.1 | 76% | 53% | 31% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 2.1 | 1.2 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.0 | 75% | 52% | 30% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | CHF | 1.2 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 45% | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Michael Frederick | WR | 1.2 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 44% | 20% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 43% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 47% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 30% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 36% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 17% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 55% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 58% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rhylee West | HFFL | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 42% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jordan Croft | FF | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 50% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rory Lobb | CHF | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 30% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 41% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | FPR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 36% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Davidson | FPL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 33% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Dolan | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Freijah | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laitham Vandermeer | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Louis Emmett | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 21% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Williams | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Buku Khamis | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jedd Busslinger | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Coffield | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James O'Donnell | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |