AFL · ROUND 21 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Western Bulldogs
Fri 31 Jul 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 33
FRE to win, 89% chance
FRE 89%11% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 37
HIT Actual margin 37 · 3.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 77% | 65% | 51% | 39% | 26% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 5.9 | 3.9 to 7.8 | 1.5 to 10.2 | 77% | 64% | 48% | 37% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 72% | 54% | 38% | 27% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.2 | 55% | 41% | 28% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 59% | 44% | 30% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 53% | 37% | 24% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 50% | 34% | 22% | 14% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 55% | 38% | 24% | 13% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.4 to 7.7 | 54% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 47% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Michael Frederick | WR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 39% | 28% | 17% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 38% | 26% | 16% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 33% | 18% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 39% | 23% | 13% | 8% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 34% | 22% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 43% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | INT | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | CHF | 2.0 | 0.8 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Williams | HBFR | 5.4 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 68% | 52% | 37% | 26% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Nick Coffield | INT | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 66% | 50% | 35% | 24% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| James O'Donnell | FB | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 49% | 29% | 18% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Buku Khamis | BPR | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 53% | 37% | 25% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 51% | 35% | 23% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jedd Busslinger | CHB | 4.1 | 2.4 to 5.7 | 0.4 to 7.7 | 54% | 37% | 23% | 13% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 43% | 28% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Joel Freijah | WL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 47% | 29% | 15% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Rory Lobb | CHF | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 38% | 27% | 17% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 37% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 28% | 18% | 11% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 44% | 28% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | FPR | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 44% | 28% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | RR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 36% | 22% | 10% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Rhylee West | HFFL | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Davidson | FPL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 19% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Laitham Vandermeer | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jordan Croft | FF | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Dolan | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Louis Emmett | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |