AFL · ROUND 21 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Melbourne
Sun 2 Aug 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 17
MEL to win, 74% chance
GCS 26%74% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 9
HIT Actual margin 9 · 7.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | C | 29.3 | 25.1 to 33.6 | 18.5 to 40.2 | 97% | 91% | 76% | 46% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Matt Rowell | RR | 27.3 | 23.2 to 31.4 | 16.8 to 37.8 | 95% | 87% | 65% | 31% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Touk Miller | R | 26.7 | 22.7 to 30.8 | 16.3 to 37.2 | 95% | 86% | 62% | 27% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| John Noble | HBFR | 26.4 | 22.3 to 30.4 | 16.0 to 36.7 | 95% | 85% | 59% | 24% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | FB | 24.5 | 20.5 to 28.4 | 14.4 to 34.5 | 97% | 84% | 54% | 20% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Christian Petracca | FPL | 24.1 | 20.2 to 28.0 | 14.1 to 34.1 | 97% | 82% | 52% | 19% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFL | 22.5 | 18.8 to 26.3 | 12.8 to 32.2 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 20.4 | 16.8 to 24.1 | 11.1 to 29.7 | 84% | 56% | 22% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 19.0 | 15.5 to 22.5 | 10.0 to 28.0 | 77% | 40% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Beau Addinsall | WR | 17.8 | 14.3 to 21.2 | 9.0 to 26.5 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 16.8 | 13.4 to 20.1 | 8.2 to 25.4 | 66% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFL | 15.8 | 12.5 to 19.0 | 7.4 to 24.1 | 52% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jai Murray | WL | 15.6 | 12.3 to 18.8 | 7.3 to 23.9 | 50% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Sam Collins | BPR | 14.9 | 11.7 to 18.1 | 6.7 to 23.1 | 51% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | CHF | 13.5 | 10.5 to 16.6 | 5.7 to 21.4 | 34% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Ben Long | INT | 11.4 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 11.2 | 8.4 to 14.1 | 3.9 to 18.5 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Charlie Ballard | INT | 10.4 | 7.6 to 13.2 | 3.3 to 17.5 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jake Rogers | HFFR | 10.4 | 7.7 to 13.2 | 3.4 to 17.5 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Dylan Patterson | INT | 10.0 | 7.3 to 12.7 | 3.1 to 17.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ethan Read | INT | 9.2 | 6.5 to 11.8 | 2.4 to 15.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jed Walter | FF | 8.7 | 6.2 to 11.3 | 2.1 to 15.3 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Ben King | FPR | 8.3 | 5.8 to 10.8 | 1.8 to 14.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 26.1 | 22.1 to 30.1 | 15.8 to 36.4 | 94% | 82% | 57% | 23% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | R | 25.9 | 21.9 to 29.9 | 15.6 to 36.2 | 94% | 82% | 56% | 21% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 25.1 | 21.2 to 29.1 | 15.0 to 35.3 | 98% | 87% | 58% | 24% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 22.5 | 18.7 to 26.3 | 12.8 to 32.2 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Christian Salem | INT | 22.4 | 18.7 to 26.2 | 12.8 to 32.1 | 92% | 70% | 35% | 10% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFL | 22.1 | 18.3 to 25.8 | 12.4 to 31.7 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 20.8 | 17.1 to 24.4 | 11.4 to 30.1 | 86% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Ed Langdon | C | 20.4 | 16.8 to 24.1 | 11.1 to 29.7 | 84% | 56% | 22% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 19.9 | 16.3 to 23.5 | 10.7 to 29.1 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 18.0 | 14.5 to 21.4 | 9.1 to 26.8 | 71% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | BPR | 17.5 | 14.1 to 20.8 | 8.7 to 26.2 | 69% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFR | 16.7 | 13.4 to 20.1 | 8.2 to 25.3 | 66% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | INT | 16.0 | 12.7 to 19.3 | 7.6 to 24.4 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 15.7 | 12.4 to 18.9 | 7.3 to 24.0 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | INT | 14.4 | 11.3 to 17.6 | 6.4 to 22.5 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 13.9 | 10.8 to 17.0 | 5.9 to 21.8 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 13.3 | 10.3 to 16.4 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | HFFR | 12.8 | 9.8 to 15.8 | 5.1 to 20.5 | 30% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 12.8 | 9.8 to 15.8 | 5.1 to 20.5 | 30% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 12.7 | 9.7 to 15.7 | 5.0 to 20.4 | 29% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.9 | 3.8 to 18.3 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Paddy Cross | FPL | 10.5 | 7.8 to 13.3 | 3.4 to 17.6 | 14% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | CHF | 8.4 | 5.8 to 10.9 | 1.9 to 14.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |