AFL · ROUND 21 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Melbourne
Sun 2 Aug 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 17
MEL to win, 74% chance
GCS 26%74% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 9
HIT Actual margin 9 · 7.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | C | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 144 | 91% | 84% | 70% | 58% | 41% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Matt Rowell | RR | 99 | 83 to 115 | 60 to 139 | 88% | 77% | 64% | 51% | 33% | inside our 90% range: 125 |
| John Noble | HBFR | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 138 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 48% | 31% | outside our 90% range: 152 |
| Touk Miller | R | 94 | 78 to 110 | 55 to 133 | 86% | 75% | 59% | 40% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Bodhi Uwland | FB | 88 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 127 | 84% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Christian Petracca | FPL | 83 | 68 to 99 | 45 to 122 | 78% | 59% | 39% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFL | 82 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 57% | 38% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 82 | 67 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 57% | 37% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 80 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Beau Addinsall | WR | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFL | 67 | 52 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Sam Collins | BPR | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 27 |
| Bailey Humphrey | CHF | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Jai Murray | WL | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Ben Long | INT | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Ben King | FPR | 56 | 42 to 70 | 20 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Jake Rogers | HFFR | 52 | 38 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Jed Walter | FF | 51 | 37 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Charlie Ballard | INT | 46 | 33 to 60 | 12 to 80 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Ethan Read | INT | 46 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 80 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Dylan Patterson | INT | 46 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 79 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Gawn | RK | 103 | 87 to 120 | 63 to 144 | 91% | 83% | 69% | 58% | 40% | inside our 90% range: 132 |
| Tom Sparrow | R | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 138 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 49% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 126 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 97 | 81 to 113 | 57 to 136 | 88% | 78% | 64% | 46% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 111 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 94 | 78 to 110 | 54 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 40% | 26% | outside our 90% range: 40 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 88 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 127 | 84% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFL | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 42% | 28% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 112 |
| Ed Langdon | C | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 75% | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Christian Salem | INT | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | BPR | 72 | 58 to 87 | 35 to 110 | 55% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Blake Howes | HBFR | 71 | 56 to 85 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 33 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 106 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 65 | 50 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 37% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | INT | 59 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Caleb Windsor | INT | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Bailey Laurie | HFFR | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Paddy Cross | FPL | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Matthew Jefferson | CHF | 46 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 80 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |