AFL · ROUND 21 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Melbourne
Sun 2 Aug 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 17
MEL to win, 74% chance
GCS 26%74% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 9
HIT Actual margin 9 · 7.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben King | FPR | 2.2 | 1.4 to 3.1 | 0.2 to 4.3 | 79% | 55% | 34% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jed Walter | FF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 54% | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | CHF | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 50% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ben Long | INT | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 54% | 27% | 9% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Christian Petracca | FPL | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 50% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 41% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ethan Read | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 23% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Rogers | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dylan Patterson | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 22% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Beau Addinsall | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jai Murray | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matt Rowell | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 25% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Anderson | C | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Touk Miller | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Ballard | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| John Noble | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Collins | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 2.1 | 1.3 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.1 | 76% | 53% | 31% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 61% | 32% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | CHF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 55% | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 45% | 20% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 54% | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 52% | 19% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 29% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 43% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Paddy Cross | FPL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 36% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ed Langdon | C | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 23% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | R | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Christian Salem | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |