AFL · ROUND 21 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Melbourne
Sun 2 Aug 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 17
MEL to win, 74% chance
GCS 26%74% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 9
HIT Actual margin 9 · 7.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Rowell | RR | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 1.9 to 10.3 | 87% | 76% | 63% | 51% | 38% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Touk Miller | R | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 65% | 49% | 33% | 22% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Noah Anderson | C | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 61% | 41% | 24% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 39% | 23% | 13% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | CHF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 34% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Christian Petracca | FPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Beau Addinsall | WR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Rogers | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 23% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Dylan Patterson | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ben Long | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 27% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jai Murray | WL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ethan Read | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| John Noble | HBFR | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | FB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Charlie Ballard | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben King | FPR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Collins | BPR | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jed Walter | FF | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Sparrow | R | 5.7 | 3.9 to 7.5 | 1.7 to 9.7 | 84% | 72% | 59% | 47% | 33% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.6 to 9.5 | 81% | 70% | 56% | 46% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 60% | 41% | 27% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 54% | 35% | 19% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Paddy Cross | FPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 29% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 26% | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ed Langdon | C | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 16% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 16% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 2.0 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Christian Salem | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 20% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | BPR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | CHF | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |