AFL · ROUND 21 · UNIVERSITY OF TASMANIA STADIUM
Hawthorn v North Melbourne
Sat 1 Aug 2026, 1:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 43
HAW to win, 94% chance
HAW 94%6% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 16
HIT Actual margin 16 · 27.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 26.6 / inside our 90% range: 34.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 90 / inside our 90% range: 121 |
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 24.8 / inside our 90% range: 30.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 6.5 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 101 / inside our 50% range: 115 |
| Connor Macdonald | WR | 24.6 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.0 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 96 / inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 24.5 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 87 / inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Will Day | C | 23.2 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 88 / inside our 50% range: 78 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 22.5 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.7 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 88 / inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 22.5 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 6.3 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 85 / inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 22.4 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.3 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 85 / inside our 50% range: 99 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | INT | 21.6 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 80 / inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 20.8 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.3 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 84 / inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Harry Morrison | WL | 19.9 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 82 / outside our 90% range: 35 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 19.4 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 83 / outside our 90% range: 40 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 18.3 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.8 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 80 / inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 17.6 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 72 / inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Finn Maginness | INT | 14.6 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 56 / inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Bailey Macdonald | CHB | 14.1 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 57 / inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 13.3 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 85 / inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 12.3 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 2.4 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.3 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 67 / inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 11.9 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 6.1 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 75 / inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Oliver Greeves | HFFR | 11.6 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 58 / outside our 90% range: 18 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 10.3 / outside our 90% range: 20.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.4 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 68 / inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 10.3 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 47 / inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Aidan Schubert | FF | 8.0 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 46 / inside our 50% range: 49 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 31.0 / inside our 90% range: 25.0 | 0.5 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 5.4 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 5.3 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 113 / inside our 50% range: 124 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 25.8 / inside our 50% range: 27.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.8 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.8 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 97 / inside our 50% range: 102 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 25.7 / inside our 50% range: 27.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 97 / inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 25.5 / inside our 50% range: 27.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.4 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 92 / inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Jy Simpkin | HFFR | 22.7 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 90 / inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | RR | 22.4 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 84 / inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 22.0 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 80 / inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 20.1 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 78 / inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 16.3 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.8 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 73 / inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 15.8 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 91 / inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 15.4 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 60 / inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 14.7 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 62 / inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Bailey Scott | WL | 14.1 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Josh Goater | HBFL | 13.6 / inside our 90% range: 21.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 55 / inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 12.5 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.5 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.4 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 56 / inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFL | 12.3 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 61 / inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 11.9 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 1.1 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Paul Curtis | FPR | 11.8 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.7 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Griffin Logue | INT | 11.2 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 46 / inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 9.8 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.8 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 53 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 9.8 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.7 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 63 / inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Zac Banch | INT | 8.8 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 44 / inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Wil Dawson | INT | 7.4 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 40 / inside our 50% range: 50 |