AFL · ROUND 21 · UNIVERSITY OF TASMANIA STADIUM
Hawthorn v North Melbourne
Sat 1 Aug 2026, 1:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 43
HAW to win, 94% chance
HAW 94%6% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 16
HIT Actual margin 16 · 27.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 26.6 | 22.5 to 30.6 | 16.2 to 37.0 | 95% | 85% | 61% | 26% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 24.8 | 20.9 to 28.8 | 14.7 to 34.9 | 97% | 85% | 56% | 22% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | WR | 24.6 | 20.7 to 28.5 | 14.5 to 34.7 | 97% | 84% | 55% | 21% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 24.5 | 20.6 to 28.4 | 14.5 to 34.6 | 97% | 84% | 55% | 21% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Will Day | C | 23.2 | 19.4 to 27.0 | 13.4 to 33.0 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 22.5 | 18.7 to 26.3 | 12.8 to 32.2 | 92% | 70% | 35% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 22.5 | 18.8 to 26.3 | 12.8 to 32.2 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 22.4 | 18.6 to 26.2 | 12.7 to 32.1 | 92% | 70% | 35% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | INT | 21.6 | 17.9 to 25.3 | 12.1 to 31.1 | 89% | 64% | 29% | 7% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 20.8 | 17.1 to 24.4 | 11.4 to 30.1 | 86% | 59% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Harry Morrison | WL | 19.9 | 16.3 to 23.5 | 10.7 to 29.1 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 19.4 | 15.8 to 22.9 | 10.3 to 28.5 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 18.3 | 14.9 to 21.8 | 9.4 to 27.2 | 74% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 17.6 | 14.2 to 21.0 | 8.8 to 26.3 | 70% | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Finn Maginness | INT | 14.6 | 11.5 to 17.8 | 6.5 to 22.7 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | CHB | 14.1 | 11.0 to 17.3 | 6.1 to 22.1 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 13.3 | 10.3 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 12.3 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.8 | 4.4 to 19.3 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Oliver Greeves | HFFR | 11.6 | 8.7 to 14.5 | 4.2 to 19.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 10.3 | 7.6 to 13.1 | 3.3 to 17.4 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 10.3 | 7.5 to 13.0 | 3.2 to 17.3 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Aidan Schubert | FF | 8.0 | 5.5 to 10.5 | 1.6 to 14.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 31.0 | 26.7 to 35.3 | 19.9 to 42.1 | 98% | 93% | 81% | 56% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 25.8 | 21.8 to 29.9 | 15.6 to 36.1 | 94% | 82% | 56% | 21% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 25.7 | 21.7 to 29.7 | 15.4 to 35.9 | 98% | 88% | 61% | 27% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 25.5 | 21.6 to 29.5 | 15.3 to 35.8 | 98% | 88% | 60% | 26% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | HFFR | 22.7 | 18.9 to 26.5 | 13.0 to 32.4 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | RR | 22.4 | 18.6 to 26.1 | 12.7 to 32.0 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 22.0 | 18.3 to 25.8 | 12.4 to 31.6 | 91% | 67% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 20.1 | 16.5 to 23.8 | 10.9 to 29.4 | 83% | 53% | 20% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 16.3 | 13.0 to 19.6 | 7.9 to 24.8 | 62% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 15.8 | 12.5 to 19.0 | 7.4 to 24.1 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 15.4 | 12.2 to 18.7 | 7.1 to 23.7 | 49% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 14.7 | 11.6 to 17.9 | 6.6 to 22.9 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Bailey Scott | WL | 14.1 | 11.0 to 17.2 | 6.1 to 22.1 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Josh Goater | HBFL | 13.6 | 10.6 to 16.7 | 5.8 to 21.5 | 36% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 12.5 | 9.5 to 15.4 | 4.9 to 20.1 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFL | 12.3 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.8 | 4.4 to 19.4 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Paul Curtis | FPR | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.4 to 19.3 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Griffin Logue | INT | 11.2 | 8.4 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.5 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 9.8 | 7.1 to 12.5 | 2.9 to 16.7 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 9.8 | 7.1 to 12.4 | 2.9 to 16.7 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Zac Banch | INT | 8.8 | 6.2 to 11.4 | 2.2 to 15.4 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Wil Dawson | INT | 7.4 | 5.0 to 9.8 | 1.2 to 13.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |