AFL · ROUND 21 · UNIVERSITY OF TASMANIA STADIUM
Hawthorn v North Melbourne
Sat 1 Aug 2026, 1:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 43
HAW to win, 94% chance
HAW 94%6% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 16
HIT Actual margin 16 · 27.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 52% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 115 |
| Connor Macdonald | WR | 96 | 80 to 112 | 57 to 136 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 46% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 90 | 75 to 106 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 72% | 53% | 36% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 121 |
| Will Day | C | 88 | 73 to 104 | 49 to 127 | 84% | 67% | 49% | 31% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 88 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 127 | 84% | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 87 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 85 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 42% | 27% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 99 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 85 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 63% | 40% | 26% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 85 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 63% | 40% | 26% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 84 | 68 to 99 | 45 to 122 | 78% | 60% | 39% | 23% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 83 | 68 to 99 | 45 to 121 | 78% | 59% | 39% | 23% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 40 |
| Harry Morrison | WL | 82 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 57% | 37% | 21% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 35 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | INT | 80 | 65 to 96 | 42 to 118 | 71% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 80 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 72 | 58 to 87 | 35 to 110 | 55% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 68 | 53 to 83 | 31 to 105 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 67 | 52 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Oliver Greeves | HFFR | 58 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 18 |
| Bailey Macdonald | CHB | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Finn Maginness | INT | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 47 | 33 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Aidan Schubert | FF | 46 | 32 to 60 | 12 to 80 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 113 | 97 to 130 | 72 to 154 | 96% | 91% | 82% | 68% | 57% | inside our 50% range: 124 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 97 | 81 to 113 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 47% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 97 | 81 to 113 | 57 to 136 | 88% | 78% | 64% | 46% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 102 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 92 | 77 to 108 | 53 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 38% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 91 | 75 to 107 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 73% | 55% | 37% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Jy Simpkin | HFFR | 90 | 75 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 53% | 36% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | RR | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 62% | 40% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 80 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 117 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 55% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Paul Curtis | FPR | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 63 | 48 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Bailey Scott | WL | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFL | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 60 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 56 | 41 to 70 | 20 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Josh Goater | HBFL | 55 | 41 to 70 | 20 to 90 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Griffin Logue | INT | 46 | 32 to 60 | 12 to 80 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Zac Banch | INT | 44 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Wil Dawson | INT | 40 | 27 to 53 | 7 to 73 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |