AFL · ROUND 21 · UNIVERSITY OF TASMANIA STADIUM
Hawthorn v North Melbourne
Sat 1 Aug 2026, 1:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 43
HAW to win, 94% chance
HAW 94%6% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 16
HIT Actual margin 16 · 27.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 3.0 | 2.0 to 3.9 | 0.6 to 5.3 | 85% | 61% | 47% | 31% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 2.4 | 1.5 to 3.2 | 0.3 to 4.4 | 81% | 58% | 35% | 17% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 2.1 | 1.3 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.1 | 76% | 53% | 31% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 56% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 47% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aidan Schubert | FF | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 30% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Greeves | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 26% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Will Day | C | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 29% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | WR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 24% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Finn Maginness | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Morrison | WL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 17% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Larkey | FF | 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.8 | 0.1 to 3.9 | 72% | 49% | 28% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Paul Curtis | FPR | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 66% | 35% | 14% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 41% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 60% | 25% | 7% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 35% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 42% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zac Banch | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 16% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Scott | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Griffin Logue | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wil Dawson | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Goater | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |