AFL · ROUND 21 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v GWS GIANTS
Sat 1 Aug 2026, 6:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GWS by 15
GWS to win, 72% chance
PA 28%72% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 12
HIT Actual margin 12 · 3.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 25.2 | 21.2 to 29.1 | 15.0 to 35.3 | 98% | 87% | 58% | 24% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Ollie Wines | RR | 24.4 | 20.5 to 28.3 | 14.4 to 34.5 | 97% | 84% | 54% | 20% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 23.2 | 19.4 to 27.1 | 13.4 to 33.1 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 22.9 | 19.1 to 26.7 | 13.2 to 32.7 | 93% | 72% | 39% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 21.4 | 17.7 to 25.1 | 11.9 to 30.9 | 88% | 63% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 20.8 | 17.1 to 24.4 | 11.4 to 30.1 | 86% | 59% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 17.0 | 13.6 to 20.4 | 8.4 to 25.6 | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Christian Moraes | WL | 16.7 | 13.3 to 20.0 | 8.1 to 25.2 | 65% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Lai | BPL | 16.7 | 13.4 to 20.1 | 8.2 to 25.3 | 65% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 16.7 | 13.4 to 20.1 | 8.2 to 25.3 | 66% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 15.9 | 12.6 to 19.2 | 7.5 to 24.3 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Will Lorenz | INT | 15.5 | 12.3 to 18.7 | 7.2 to 23.8 | 50% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 15.2 | 11.9 to 18.4 | 6.9 to 23.4 | 46% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 12.7 | 9.7 to 15.7 | 5.1 to 20.4 | 29% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | FPR | 11.7 | 8.8 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.1 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 11.1 | 8.3 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.4 | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Balyn O'Brien | INT | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.9 | 3.8 to 18.3 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.5 | 3.6 to 17.9 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 10.2 | 7.5 to 13.0 | 3.2 to 17.3 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Harrison Ramm | FB | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.6 | 3.0 to 16.9 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Todd Marshall | CHF | 9.7 | 7.0 to 12.3 | 2.8 to 16.5 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 9.5 | 6.8 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.3 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 8.1 | 5.6 to 10.6 | 1.7 to 14.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 29.0 | 24.8 to 33.3 | 18.2 to 39.8 | 97% | 89% | 74% | 44% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 28.9 | 24.7 to 33.1 | 18.1 to 39.7 | 97% | 89% | 73% | 42% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFL | 27.2 | 23.1 to 31.3 | 16.7 to 37.7 | 95% | 87% | 64% | 30% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPL | 22.5 | 18.7 to 26.2 | 12.8 to 32.1 | 92% | 70% | 35% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 19.4 | 15.8 to 22.9 | 10.3 to 28.5 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 18.9 | 15.4 to 22.4 | 9.9 to 27.9 | 76% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.7 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | CHB | 18.3 | 14.8 to 21.7 | 9.4 to 27.2 | 73% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Joe Fonti | INT | 17.6 | 14.2 to 21.0 | 8.9 to 26.4 | 70% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Toby Bedford | HFFL | 15.9 | 12.6 to 19.1 | 7.5 to 24.2 | 53% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Harry Rowston | R | 15.8 | 12.5 to 19.0 | 7.4 to 24.1 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | RR | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.3 | 6.9 to 23.3 | 53% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPR | 14.6 | 11.5 to 17.8 | 6.5 to 22.7 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | INT | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.1 | 6.0 to 22.0 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jack Ough | INT | 13.9 | 10.8 to 17.0 | 6.0 to 21.9 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 13.5 | 10.4 to 16.5 | 5.6 to 21.3 | 37% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 13.4 | 10.4 to 16.5 | 5.6 to 21.2 | 37% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.4 to 19.3 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Callum Brown | FPR | 11.3 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 10.2 | 7.5 to 12.9 | 3.2 to 17.2 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Riley Hamilton | INT | 10.1 | 7.4 to 12.9 | 3.1 to 17.1 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Josaia Delana | HFFR | 9.2 | 6.6 to 11.8 | 2.5 to 15.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | CHF | 9.2 | 6.6 to 11.8 | 2.5 to 16.0 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |