AFL · ROUND 21 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v GWS GIANTS
Sat 1 Aug 2026, 6:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GWS by 15
GWS to win, 72% chance
PA 28%72% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 12
HIT Actual margin 12 · 3.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 144 | 91% | 83% | 70% | 58% | 40% | inside our 90% range: 123 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 97 | 81 to 113 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 47% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 92 | 77 to 108 | 53 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 38% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 102 |
| Ollie Wines | RR | 91 | 75 to 107 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 73% | 55% | 37% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 89 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 69% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Willem Drew | R | 88 | 72 to 104 | 49 to 127 | 84% | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 86 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 64% | 46% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 110 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 77% | 59% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Mitch Georgiades | FPR | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Josh Lai | BPL | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Christian Moraes | WL | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 12 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Will Lorenz | INT | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Todd Marshall | CHF | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 97 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 61 | 47 to 76 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 20 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Balyn O'Brien | INT | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 84 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 50 | 36 to 63 | 15 to 84 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Harrison Ramm | FB | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 102 | 86 to 119 | 62 to 143 | 91% | 82% | 67% | 56% | 39% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 140 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 52% | 36% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFL | 98 | 82 to 114 | 59 to 138 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 49% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 127 |
| Connor Idun | BPL | 89 | 74 to 105 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 70% | 51% | 33% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Kieren Briggs | INT | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Harry Himmelberg | CHB | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Stephen Coniglio | RR | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 99 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 53% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Toby Bedford | HFFL | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Harry Rowston | R | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Joe Fonti | INT | 69 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 67 | 52 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPR | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 38% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 64 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 100 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Callum Brown | FPR | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 32% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 61 | 47 to 76 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Max Gruzewski | CHF | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Jack Ough | INT | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 84 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16 |
| Josaia Delana | HFFR | 48 | 35 to 62 | 14 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Riley Hamilton | INT | 45 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 79 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |