AFL · ROUND 21 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v GWS GIANTS
Sat 1 Aug 2026, 6:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GWS by 15
GWS to win, 72% chance
PA 28%72% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 12
HIT Actual margin 12 · 3.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Georgiades | FPR | 2.4 | 1.5 to 3.3 | 0.3 to 4.5 | 81% | 58% | 35% | 17% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 1.3 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 68% | 38% | 15% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 56% | 28% | 10% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 53% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Todd Marshall | CHF | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 42% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 51% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 32% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Balyn O'Brien | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 29% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Will Lorenz | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 28% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Christian Moraes | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ollie Wines | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 28% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harrison Ramm | FB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Lai | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 2.4 | 1.5 to 3.3 | 0.3 to 4.5 | 81% | 58% | 35% | 17% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 70% | 47% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | CHF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 58% | 29% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Callum Brown | FPR | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 71% | 41% | 17% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Toby Bedford | HFFL | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 27% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josaia Delana | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 33% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | RR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 24% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Harry Rowston | R | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 42% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Riley Hamilton | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 21% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ough | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Joe Fonti | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |