AFL · ROUND 21 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v GWS GIANTS
Sat 1 Aug 2026, 6:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GWS by 15
GWS to win, 72% chance
PA 28%72% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 12
HIT Actual margin 12 · 3.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 7.0 | 4.9 to 9.1 | 2.2 to 11.7 | 84% | 73% | 59% | 46% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | FPR | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.1 | 75% | 62% | 48% | 36% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Josh Lai | BPL | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 73% | 55% | 39% | 27% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 61% | 44% | 30% | 19% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 59% | 42% | 28% | 18% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 53% | 37% | 24% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Todd Marshall | CHF | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 56% | 38% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 45% | 30% | 18% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 42% | 29% | 18% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 43% | 30% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ollie Wines | RR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.9 | 37% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 17% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Christian Moraes | WL | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 24% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Will Lorenz | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harrison Ramm | FB | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Balyn O'Brien | INT | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Idun | BPL | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.4 | 1.9 to 10.9 | 80% | 68% | 53% | 39% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.6 | 78% | 65% | 50% | 35% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFL | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.1 | 75% | 62% | 47% | 35% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | CHB | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 69% | 57% | 43% | 30% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 72% | 55% | 39% | 29% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Joe Fonti | INT | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 72% | 55% | 38% | 27% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 64% | 48% | 33% | 21% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 51% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 3.7 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 44% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | CHF | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 38% | 26% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harry Rowston | R | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 36% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Callum Brown | FPR | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 42% | 26% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 35% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 3.2 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 27% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 23% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | RR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 18% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jack Ough | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Riley Hamilton | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Josaia Delana | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Toby Bedford | HFFL | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |