AFL · ROUND 21 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v GWS GIANTS
Sat 1 Aug 2026, 6:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GWS by 15
GWS to win, 72% chance
PA 28%72% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 12
HIT Actual margin 12 · 3.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem Drew | R | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.3 | 70% | 53% | 38% | 25% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ollie Wines | RR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.2 | 64% | 46% | 26% | 15% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 54% | 33% | 20% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 44% | 26% | 13% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 34% | 19% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 36% | 20% | 12% | 6% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Will Lorenz | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Christian Moraes | WL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Balyn O'Brien | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 22% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 22% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 26% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Lai | BPL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Todd Marshall | CHF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Harrison Ramm | FB | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | FPR | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 73% | 56% | 40% | 28% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Toby Bedford | HFFL | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 65% | 49% | 33% | 23% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 64% | 46% | 26% | 15% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 57% | 36% | 20% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 49% | 29% | 18% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 52% | 33% | 19% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 39% | 23% | 14% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Rowston | R | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | RR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 39% | 23% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Josaia Delana | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 29% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jack Ough | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 21% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Riley Hamilton | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Callum Brown | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joe Fonti | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 23% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 17% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | CHF | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | CHB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |