AFL · ROUND 21 · MCG
Richmond v West Coast Eagles
Sun 2 Aug 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
WCE by 0
WCE to win, 50% chance
RIC 50%50% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
RIC by 11
MISS Actual margin 11 · 11.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | C | 25.8 | 21.8 to 29.8 | 15.6 to 36.1 | 94% | 82% | 56% | 21% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 24.5 | 20.5 to 28.4 | 14.4 to 34.5 | 97% | 84% | 54% | 20% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Jayden Short | INT | 23.5 | 19.6 to 27.3 | 13.6 to 33.3 | 94% | 75% | 42% | 14% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Dion Prestia | CHF | 22.0 | 18.2 to 25.7 | 12.4 to 31.6 | 90% | 67% | 33% | 8% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Sam Banks | CHB | 21.3 | 17.6 to 25.0 | 11.9 to 30.8 | 88% | 62% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Tom Brown | HBFL | 20.4 | 16.8 to 24.0 | 11.1 to 29.7 | 84% | 56% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFR | 19.4 | 15.9 to 23.0 | 10.3 to 28.5 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.8 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Sam Cumming | INT | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.7 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | WR | 18.3 | 14.8 to 21.8 | 9.4 to 27.2 | 74% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 17.8 | 14.4 to 21.2 | 9.0 to 26.6 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Sam Lalor | R | 17.4 | 14.0 to 20.8 | 8.7 to 26.1 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 16.6 | 13.2 to 19.9 | 8.0 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 16.4 | 13.1 to 19.7 | 7.9 to 24.9 | 62% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 15.3 | 12.0 to 18.5 | 7.0 to 23.5 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Luke Trainor | INT | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.3 | 6.9 to 23.3 | 54% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Taj Hotton | FF | 14.9 | 11.7 to 18.1 | 6.7 to 23.0 | 50% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | HFFR | 14.5 | 11.4 to 17.7 | 6.4 to 22.6 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 14.1 | 11.0 to 17.2 | 6.1 to 22.1 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Kye Annand | BPR | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FPL | 10.2 | 7.4 to 12.9 | 3.2 to 17.2 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 9.8 | 7.1 to 12.5 | 2.9 to 16.7 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Samson Ryan | INT | 8.8 | 6.2 to 11.4 | 2.2 to 15.4 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harley Reid | RR | 25.2 | 21.2 to 29.1 | 15.0 to 35.3 | 98% | 87% | 58% | 24% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | HBFL | 25.1 | 21.1 to 29.0 | 14.9 to 35.2 | 98% | 87% | 58% | 24% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Tim Kelly | R | 24.5 | 20.6 to 28.4 | 14.4 to 34.5 | 97% | 84% | 54% | 21% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Marcus Herbert | INT | 21.9 | 18.2 to 25.7 | 12.3 to 31.5 | 90% | 67% | 32% | 8% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 19.7 | 16.1 to 23.2 | 10.5 to 28.8 | 83% | 51% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 18.9 | 15.4 to 22.4 | 9.9 to 27.9 | 76% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Ryan Maric | INT | 18.6 | 15.1 to 22.1 | 9.7 to 27.6 | 75% | 36% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jack Graham | HFFR | 18.4 | 14.9 to 21.8 | 9.5 to 27.3 | 74% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 15.8 | 12.5 to 19.1 | 7.4 to 24.2 | 52% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Brady Hough | HBFR | 15.4 | 12.2 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.7 | 49% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPR | 15.3 | 12.0 to 18.5 | 7.0 to 23.5 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 14.9 | 11.7 to 18.1 | 6.7 to 23.1 | 51% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 14.7 | 11.5 to 17.9 | 6.6 to 22.8 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 14.3 | 11.2 to 17.4 | 6.3 to 22.3 | 43% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 14.1 | 11.0 to 17.2 | 6.1 to 22.1 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Tom Cole | HFFL | 13.7 | 10.6 to 16.7 | 5.8 to 21.5 | 37% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 12.1 | 9.2 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 11.6 | 8.7 to 14.4 | 4.2 to 18.9 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Sandy Brock | INT | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.6 | 3.7 to 18.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Harvey Johnston | INT | 10.5 | 7.8 to 13.3 | 3.4 to 17.6 | 14% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 9.8 | 7.2 to 12.5 | 2.9 to 16.8 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | FPR | 9.7 | 7.0 to 12.4 | 2.8 to 16.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 9.5 | 6.9 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.4 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |