AFL · ROUND 21 · MCG
Richmond v West Coast Eagles
Sun 2 Aug 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
WCE by 0
WCE to win, 50% chance
RIC 50%50% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
RIC by 11
MISS Actual margin 11 · 11.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | C | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 140 | 89% | 79% | 64% | 51% | 35% | inside our 90% range: 133 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 93 | 77 to 108 | 53 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 38% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Jayden Short | INT | 90 | 75 to 106 | 52 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 53% | 36% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Sam Banks | CHB | 88 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 127 | 84% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Tom Brown | HBFL | 88 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 127 | 84% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 88 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFR | 87 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 17% | outside our 90% range: 47 |
| Dion Prestia | CHF | 87 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 126 | 82% | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 77% | 59% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Tyler Sonsie | WR | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 55% | 37% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Sam Lalor | R | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Sam Cumming | INT | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 25 |
| Taj Hotton | FF | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | HFFR | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Luke Trainor | INT | 64 | 50 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Tom Lynch | FPL | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 31% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 27% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Kye Annand | BPR | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Samson Ryan | INT | 52 | 38 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCarthy | HBFL | 105 | 89 to 121 | 65 to 145 | 92% | 85% | 71% | 59% | 43% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Tim Kelly | R | 94 | 78 to 109 | 54 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 40% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 105 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 92 | 76 to 108 | 53 to 131 | 85% | 72% | 56% | 37% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 114 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 91 | 75 to 107 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 73% | 55% | 37% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Marcus Herbert | INT | 89 | 74 to 105 | 51 to 128 | 84% | 70% | 51% | 33% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 89 | 74 to 105 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 69% | 51% | 33% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 77% | 59% | 39% | 22% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 39 |
| Jack Graham | HFFR | 82 | 67 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 57% | 37% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 108 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Ryan Maric | INT | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Brady Hough | HBFR | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Tom Cole | HFFL | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 29 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPR | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 21 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 8 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | FPR | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 25% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Harvey Johnston | INT | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Sandy Brock | INT | 52 | 38 to 65 | 17 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 21 |