AFL · ROUND 21 · MCG
Richmond v West Coast Eagles
Sun 2 Aug 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
WCE by 0
WCE to win, 50% chance
RIC 50%50% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
RIC by 11
MISS Actual margin 11 · 11.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Short | INT | 6.7 | 4.6 to 8.7 | 2.1 to 11.3 | 83% | 72% | 57% | 44% | 30% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 6.5 | 4.4 to 8.5 | 1.9 to 11.0 | 82% | 69% | 55% | 41% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 71% | 58% | 44% | 31% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFR | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 72% | 55% | 39% | 27% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 66% | 51% | 35% | 24% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Tom Brown | HBFL | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 60% | 44% | 30% | 19% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Banks | CHB | 4.7 | 2.9 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 52% | 37% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Trainor | INT | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 54% | 36% | 23% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | WR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 52% | 36% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Dion Prestia | CHF | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 39% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Cumming | INT | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 52% | 36% | 25% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 46% | 32% | 20% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FPL | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 42% | 29% | 18% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Sam Lalor | R | 3.6 | 2.0 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 43% | 27% | 17% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kye Annand | BPR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 38% | 23% | 14% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 36% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 36% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 24% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | HFFR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 32% | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Taj Hotton | FF | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 18% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Samson Ryan | INT | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.3 | 1.8 to 10.8 | 79% | 68% | 53% | 38% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | HBFL | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.2 | 1.8 to 10.7 | 78% | 66% | 51% | 36% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 6.1 | 4.1 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.5 | 77% | 63% | 49% | 34% | 23% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.5 to 10.0 | 73% | 61% | 46% | 34% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 5.4 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 69% | 53% | 38% | 26% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Brady Hough | HBFR | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 67% | 47% | 33% | 23% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 56% | 40% | 27% | 17% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Marcus Herbert | INT | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 45% | 32% | 21% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Cole | HFFL | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 45% | 32% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 53% | 37% | 24% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ryan Maric | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 47% | 31% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tim Kelly | R | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 42% | 27% | 18% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Sandy Brock | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 54% | 36% | 22% | 13% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 50% | 35% | 23% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 50% | 35% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Graham | HFFR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 26% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harvey Johnston | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 26% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 20% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 19% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | FPR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |