AFL · ROUND 21 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Sydney Swans
Sat 1 Aug 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 11
SYD to win, 67% chance
STK 33%67% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 19
HIT Actual margin 19 · 7.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | CHB | 29.9 | 25.6 to 34.2 | 19.0 to 40.8 | 98% | 91% | 78% | 49% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFL | 27.1 | 23.0 to 31.2 | 16.6 to 37.6 | 95% | 87% | 64% | 30% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 26.1 | 22.0 to 30.1 | 15.7 to 36.4 | 94% | 82% | 57% | 22% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | C | 23.9 | 20.0 to 27.7 | 13.9 to 33.8 | 97% | 81% | 50% | 18% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 23.5 | 19.7 to 27.4 | 13.6 to 33.4 | 94% | 76% | 42% | 14% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Max Hall | HFFR | 21.9 | 18.2 to 25.6 | 12.3 to 31.5 | 90% | 66% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 21.6 | 17.9 to 25.3 | 12.1 to 31.1 | 89% | 64% | 29% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 21.0 | 17.3 to 24.6 | 11.6 to 30.4 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | RK | 19.5 | 15.9 to 23.0 | 10.4 to 28.6 | 82% | 50% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 18.5 | 15.1 to 22.0 | 9.6 to 27.5 | 75% | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HBFR | 16.6 | 13.3 to 19.9 | 8.1 to 25.2 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Hunter Clark | INT | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.5 | 7.7 to 24.6 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Liam Stocker | BPR | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.4 | 7.6 to 24.5 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 15.5 | 12.2 to 18.7 | 7.2 to 23.8 | 49% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Hugh Boxshall | R | 14.7 | 11.6 to 17.9 | 6.6 to 22.9 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Tom De Koning | FF | 14.4 | 11.2 to 17.5 | 6.3 to 22.4 | 47% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Mitch Owens | FPR | 13.2 | 10.1 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 20.9 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 12.4 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Tobie Travaglia | INT | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | WR | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.3 to 19.2 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.6 | 3.0 to 16.8 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 9.7 | 7.0 to 12.3 | 2.8 to 16.5 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | INT | 8.2 | 5.7 to 10.7 | 1.7 to 14.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden | C | 28.8 | 24.6 to 33.0 | 18.1 to 39.6 | 97% | 89% | 73% | 42% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 26.5 | 22.4 to 30.5 | 16.1 to 36.9 | 95% | 85% | 60% | 25% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 25.6 | 21.7 to 29.6 | 15.4 to 35.9 | 98% | 88% | 61% | 27% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 24.5 | 20.6 to 28.5 | 14.5 to 34.6 | 97% | 84% | 55% | 21% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 24.3 | 20.4 to 28.2 | 14.3 to 34.3 | 97% | 83% | 53% | 20% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Riley Bice | HBFR | 20.1 | 16.5 to 23.8 | 10.9 to 29.4 | 83% | 53% | 20% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 19.4 | 15.9 to 23.0 | 10.3 to 28.5 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Tom McCartin | BPR | 18.6 | 15.1 to 22.1 | 9.7 to 27.6 | 75% | 36% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 17.4 | 14.0 to 20.8 | 8.7 to 26.1 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| James Rowbottom | INT | 16.9 | 13.6 to 20.3 | 8.3 to 25.6 | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 16.4 | 13.1 to 19.7 | 7.9 to 24.9 | 62% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | CHF | 15.7 | 12.5 to 19.0 | 7.4 to 24.1 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 14.6 | 11.5 to 17.8 | 6.5 to 22.7 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 14.1 | 11.0 to 17.2 | 6.1 to 22.1 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Dane Rampe | HBFL | 13.9 | 10.8 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.8 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Braeden Campbell | HFFR | 13.7 | 10.6 to 16.8 | 5.8 to 21.6 | 37% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 11.5 | 8.7 to 14.4 | 4.2 to 18.9 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| William Edwards | FB | 11.2 | 8.3 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.4 | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 10.9 | 8.1 to 13.7 | 3.7 to 18.1 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Logan McDonald | FPR | 10.6 | 7.8 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.7 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | INT | 9.6 | 6.9 to 12.3 | 2.8 to 16.5 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | 9.3 | 6.6 to 11.9 | 2.5 to 16.1 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Hayden McLean | INT | 8.4 | 5.9 to 11.0 | 1.9 to 14.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |