AFL · ROUND 21 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Sydney Swans
Sat 1 Aug 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 11
SYD to win, 67% chance
STK 33%67% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 19
HIT Actual margin 19 · 7.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | CHB | 108 | 91 to 124 | 67 to 148 | 93% | 87% | 75% | 62% | 48% | inside our 50% range: 99 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFL | 107 | 91 to 123 | 66 to 148 | 93% | 87% | 74% | 61% | 47% | inside our 50% range: 105 |
| Rowan Marshall | RK | 104 | 87 to 120 | 63 to 144 | 91% | 83% | 69% | 58% | 40% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 139 | 88% | 78% | 64% | 51% | 34% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 97 | 81 to 113 | 57 to 136 | 88% | 78% | 64% | 46% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Max Hall | HFFR | 95 | 79 to 110 | 55 to 134 | 87% | 76% | 60% | 42% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 109 |
| Marcus Windhager | C | 93 | 77 to 108 | 54 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 39% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 88 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 48% | 30% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 80 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 117 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Tom De Koning | FF | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 112 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HBFR | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 71 | 57 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 52% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Liam Stocker | BPR | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 102 |
| Hugh Boxshall | R | 70 | 56 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Mitch Owens | FPR | 69 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Hunter Clark | INT | 68 | 53 to 83 | 31 to 105 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 59 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 59 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 58 | 44 to 72 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Liam O'Connell | WR | 56 | 42 to 71 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Tobie Travaglia | INT | 51 | 37 to 65 | 16 to 85 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Anthony Caminiti | INT | 46 | 33 to 60 | 12 to 80 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden | C | 112 | 96 to 129 | 71 to 153 | 95% | 90% | 81% | 67% | 56% | inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 48% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 96 | 80 to 112 | 56 to 136 | 88% | 77% | 62% | 45% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Chad Warner | R | 96 | 80 to 112 | 56 to 135 | 88% | 77% | 62% | 45% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 93 | 77 to 109 | 54 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 39% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 91 | 75 to 107 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 73% | 55% | 37% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 116 |
| Riley Bice | HBFR | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Tom McCartin | BPR | 76 | 61 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| James Rowbottom | INT | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 3 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 49% | 30% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 69 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Jake Lloyd | CHF | 66 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Braeden Campbell | HFFR | 62 | 48 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 31% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Dane Rampe | HBFL | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 25% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Logan McDonald | FPR | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 48 | 34 to 61 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | 47 | 34 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Hayden McLean | INT | 47 | 34 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Malcolm Rosas | INT | 47 | 33 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| William Edwards | FB | 46 | 32 to 60 | 12 to 80 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |