AFL · ROUND 21 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Sydney Swans
Sat 1 Aug 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 11
SYD to win, 67% chance
STK 33%67% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 19
HIT Actual margin 19 · 7.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 61% | 38% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 1.7 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 70% | 40% | 17% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Owens | FPR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 58% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | CHB | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 31% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | RK | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 31% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom De Koning | FF | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Hall | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 46% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 47% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 21% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 21% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 21% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 27% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hugh Boxshall | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 29% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hunter Clark | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tobie Travaglia | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Stocker | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 2.5 | 1.6 to 3.4 | 0.3 to 4.6 | 81% | 59% | 35% | 17% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 63% | 40% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Logan McDonald | FPR | 1.7 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 69% | 39% | 16% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 60% | 30% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 1.2 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 45% | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Hayden McLean | INT | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 58% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Braeden Campbell | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 44% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | CHF | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 47% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Rowbottom | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 36% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 28% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 27% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 19% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dane Rampe | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Riley Bice | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McCartin | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| William Edwards | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |