AFL · ROUND 21 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Sydney Swans
Sat 1 Aug 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 11
SYD to win, 67% chance
STK 33%67% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 19
HIT Actual margin 19 · 7.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 7.9 | 5.7 to 10.2 | 2.9 to 13.0 | 89% | 82% | 73% | 62% | 49% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFL | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.5 | 1.9 to 11.0 | 81% | 69% | 55% | 40% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 77% | 65% | 50% | 38% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.1 | 75% | 62% | 48% | 35% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Liam Stocker | BPR | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.0 to 9.1 | 70% | 52% | 36% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 58% | 41% | 28% | 18% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HBFR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 50% | 30% | 19% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hunter Clark | INT | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 54% | 40% | 27% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | C | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 47% | 34% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | CHB | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 52% | 34% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 53% | 37% | 25% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Max Hall | HFFR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 50% | 35% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | RK | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 50% | 35% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | WR | 3.7 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 43% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tom De Koning | FF | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 42% | 26% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mitch Owens | FPR | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 32% | 20% | 12% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tobie Travaglia | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 36% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 3.2 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 27% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hugh Boxshall | R | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 35% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 30% | 17% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 22% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCartin | BPR | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.4 | 1.8 to 10.9 | 80% | 68% | 53% | 39% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.4 to 10.0 | 72% | 59% | 44% | 33% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 65% | 47% | 33% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 52% | 33% | 21% | 13% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Riley Bice | HBFR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 53% | 34% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 57% | 42% | 29% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 45% | 32% | 20% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 53% | 37% | 24% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Logan McDonald | FPR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 52% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | CHF | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 33% | 21% | 13% | 8% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Dane Rampe | HBFL | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 41% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 31% | 21% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| William Edwards | FB | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 29% | 19% | 11% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Braeden Campbell | HFFR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 35% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hayden McLean | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 19% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 22% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | INT | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Rowbottom | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |