AFL · ROUND 22 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Richmond
Sat 8 Aug 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 43
ADE to win, 94% chance
ADE 94%6% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 9
HIT Actual margin 9 · 34.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 26.9 | 22.8 to 30.9 | 16.4 to 37.3 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 28% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 35.0 |
| Izak Rankine | RR | 25.6 | 21.6 to 29.6 | 15.4 to 35.8 | 98% | 88% | 60% | 26% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 36.0 |
| Sam Berry | R | 25.6 | 21.6 to 29.6 | 15.3 to 35.8 | 98% | 88% | 60% | 26% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Rory Laird | BPL | 24.1 | 20.2 to 27.9 | 14.1 to 34.0 | 97% | 82% | 52% | 19% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| James Peatling | WL | 22.9 | 19.1 to 26.7 | 13.1 to 32.7 | 92% | 72% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Josh Worrell | FB | 21.7 | 18.0 to 25.4 | 12.2 to 31.3 | 90% | 64% | 31% | 7% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | INT | 19.6 | 16.1 to 23.2 | 10.5 to 28.8 | 83% | 51% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | FPL | 19.5 | 16.0 to 23.1 | 10.4 to 28.7 | 82% | 50% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | HFFL | 18.4 | 14.9 to 21.9 | 9.5 to 27.3 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Mark Keane | CHB | 18.3 | 14.9 to 21.8 | 9.4 to 27.2 | 74% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 18.2 | 14.8 to 21.7 | 9.3 to 27.1 | 73% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | HBFL | 17.1 | 13.8 to 20.5 | 8.5 to 25.8 | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 17.0 | 13.6 to 20.3 | 8.4 to 25.6 | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Billy Dowling | INT | 16.5 | 13.2 to 19.8 | 8.0 to 25.0 | 63% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Oscar Ryan | INT | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.5 | 7.7 to 24.6 | 61% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 15.8 | 12.5 to 19.0 | 7.4 to 24.1 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 15.5 | 12.2 to 18.7 | 7.2 to 23.8 | 49% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Callum Ah Chee | HBFR | 14.7 | 11.5 to 17.9 | 6.6 to 22.8 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 14.5 | 11.4 to 17.7 | 6.4 to 22.6 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 13.6 | 10.6 to 16.7 | 5.8 to 21.5 | 36% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Reilly O'Brien | RK | 12.5 | 9.6 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.2 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 12.1 | 9.2 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Archie Ludowyke | INT | 8.6 | 6.0 to 11.2 | 2.0 to 15.2 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | C | 26.5 | 22.5 to 30.6 | 16.1 to 36.9 | 95% | 85% | 61% | 25% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 24.6 | 20.7 to 28.5 | 14.5 to 34.6 | 97% | 84% | 55% | 21% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Jayden Short | INT | 23.5 | 19.6 to 27.3 | 13.6 to 33.3 | 94% | 75% | 42% | 14% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Dion Prestia | CHF | 20.8 | 17.2 to 24.5 | 11.5 to 30.2 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Sam Banks | CHB | 20.8 | 17.1 to 24.5 | 11.4 to 30.2 | 86% | 59% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Tom Brown | HBFR | 19.5 | 15.9 to 23.0 | 10.3 to 28.6 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 19.3 | 15.7 to 22.8 | 10.2 to 28.4 | 82% | 48% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 18.9 | 15.4 to 22.4 | 9.9 to 27.9 | 76% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | WR | 18.6 | 15.1 to 22.1 | 9.7 to 27.6 | 75% | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 18.2 | 14.7 to 21.6 | 9.3 to 27.0 | 73% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Sam Lalor | R | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.5 | 7.8 to 24.7 | 61% | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.4 | 7.7 to 24.6 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 15.5 | 12.2 to 18.7 | 7.2 to 23.8 | 49% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 14.9 | 11.7 to 18.1 | 6.8 to 23.1 | 51% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | HFFR | 14.1 | 10.9 to 17.2 | 6.1 to 22.0 | 41% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Kye Annand | BPR | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.6 | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 12.8 | 9.8 to 15.8 | 5.1 to 20.5 | 30% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Taj Hotton | FF | 12.7 | 9.7 to 15.7 | 5.0 to 20.3 | 29% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Steely Green | INT | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.8 | 4.4 to 19.3 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FPL | 10.4 | 7.7 to 13.2 | 3.3 to 17.5 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Judson Clarke | INT | 10.0 | 7.3 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 17.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 8.2 | 5.7 to 10.7 | 1.8 to 14.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Samson Ryan | INT | 7.6 | 5.2 to 10.1 | 1.4 to 13.9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |