AFL · ROUND 22 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Richmond
Sat 8 Aug 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 43
ADE to win, 94% chance
ADE 94%6% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 9
HIT Actual margin 9 · 34.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 109 | 93 to 126 | 68 to 150 | 95% | 88% | 77% | 63% | 50% | inside our 90% range: 128 |
| Izak Rankine | RR | 107 | 91 to 124 | 67 to 148 | 93% | 87% | 74% | 62% | 47% | inside our 90% range: 138 |
| Sam Berry | R | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 89% | 79% | 66% | 52% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Rory Laird | BPL | 92 | 76 to 108 | 53 to 131 | 84% | 72% | 56% | 37% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| James Peatling | WL | 90 | 75 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 53% | 36% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Josh Worrell | FB | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 43% | 28% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Reilly O'Brien | RK | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 77% | 59% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 81 | 66 to 97 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 55% | 37% | 23% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 35 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 81 | 66 to 97 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 55% | 37% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | HFFL | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Daniel Curtin | INT | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | FPL | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 50% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 30 |
| Mark Keane | CHB | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Isaac Cumming | HBFL | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 61% | 43% | 29% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Callum Ah Chee | HBFR | 74 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Billy Dowling | INT | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 55% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 72 | 58 to 87 | 35 to 110 | 55% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Oscar Ryan | INT | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Archie Ludowyke | INT | 47 | 33 to 60 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | C | 102 | 85 to 118 | 62 to 142 | 90% | 81% | 66% | 54% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 90 | 74 to 105 | 51 to 128 | 85% | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 43% | 28% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Jayden Short | INT | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Sam Banks | CHB | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 75% | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 36 |
| Dion Prestia | CHF | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 72% | 56% | 38% | 23% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Tom Brown | HBFR | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 72% | 56% | 37% | 23% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Tyler Sonsie | WR | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 61% | 43% | 29% | 15% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 24 |
| Sam Lalor | R | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 31% | 19% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 17 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 31% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 68 | 53 to 83 | 31 to 105 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | HFFR | 67 | 52 to 82 | 30 to 103 | 45% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Tom Lynch | FPL | 62 | 48 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 31% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Taj Hotton | FF | 58 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Kye Annand | BPR | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Steely Green | INT | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 52 | 38 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Samson Ryan | INT | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Judson Clarke | INT | 47 | 34 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |