AFL · ROUND 22 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Richmond
Sat 8 Aug 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 43
ADE to win, 94% chance
ADE 94%6% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 9
HIT Actual margin 9 · 34.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 2.3 | 1.4 to 3.2 | 0.3 to 4.4 | 81% | 57% | 34% | 16% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 2.3 | 1.4 to 3.1 | 0.2 to 4.3 | 80% | 56% | 34% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 63% | 40% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 54% | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 59% | 24% | 7% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Izak Rankine | RR | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 49% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Billy Dowling | INT | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 53% | 19% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 46% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Callum Ah Chee | HBFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 33% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | FPL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Archie Ludowyke | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 24% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oscar Ryan | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Peatling | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Reilly O'Brien | RK | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Berry | R | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | HBFL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Worrell | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark Keane | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rory Laird | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Lynch | FPL | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 66% | 35% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 50% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Lalor | R | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 52% | 19% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 29% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 33% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Judson Clarke | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 32% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dion Prestia | CHF | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 22% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Steely Green | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Taj Hotton | FF | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 24% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 21% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Samson Ryan | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jayden Short | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kye Annand | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Banks | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Brown | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |