AFL · ROUND 22 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Richmond
Sat 8 Aug 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 43
ADE to win, 94% chance
ADE 94%6% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 9
HIT Actual margin 9 · 34.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.2 | 1.8 to 10.7 | 78% | 66% | 51% | 37% | 26% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rory Laird | BPL | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.3 | 1.8 to 10.8 | 78% | 67% | 52% | 37% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Josh Worrell | FB | 5.9 | 3.9 to 7.8 | 1.5 to 10.2 | 77% | 64% | 48% | 37% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Mark Keane | CHB | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 62% | 45% | 32% | 21% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 59% | 42% | 31% | 20% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Billy Dowling | INT | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.7 | 0.9 to 8.9 | 59% | 42% | 29% | 17% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 20% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Callum Ah Chee | HBFR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 58% | 41% | 28% | 18% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | HBFL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 57% | 40% | 27% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 58% | 41% | 28% | 18% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 54% | 37% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | INT | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 54% | 40% | 27% | 16% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Izak Rankine | RR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 47% | 35% | 23% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | HFFL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 38% | 25% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | FPL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 40% | 26% | 17% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Oscar Ryan | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 40% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 35% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 33% | 21% | 12% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Archie Ludowyke | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 23% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Peatling | WL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 24% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Berry | R | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 36% | 22% | 10% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Reilly O'Brien | RK | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Short | INT | 5.3 | 3.4 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 65% | 48% | 34% | 23% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.1 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 63% | 46% | 33% | 22% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 58% | 41% | 28% | 18% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 47% | 35% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Brown | HBFR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 48% | 32% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Banks | CHB | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 51% | 36% | 25% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | WR | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 44% | 30% | 19% | 11% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | HFFR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 38% | 24% | 16% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 43% | 27% | 17% | 11% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FPL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 40% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kye Annand | BPR | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 41% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Sam Lalor | R | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 43% | 27% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 29% | 17% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dion Prestia | CHF | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 20% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Steely Green | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Taj Hotton | FF | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Judson Clarke | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Samson Ryan | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 1.4 | 0.4 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |