AFL · ROUND 22 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn
Fri 7 Aug 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 0
BRI to win, 50% chance
BRI 50%50% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 67
HIT Actual margin 67 · 66.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | C | 28.2 | 24.1 to 32.4 | 17.6 to 38.9 | 96% | 89% | 71% | 38% | 14% | outside our 90% range: 39.0 |
| Lachie Neale | INT | 28.1 | 23.9 to 32.2 | 17.4 to 38.7 | 96% | 89% | 70% | 37% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 35.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 25.4 | 21.4 to 29.4 | 15.2 to 35.6 | 98% | 87% | 59% | 25% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 22.4 | 18.6 to 26.2 | 12.7 to 32.1 | 92% | 70% | 35% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 22.0 | 18.2 to 25.7 | 12.4 to 31.5 | 90% | 67% | 33% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 22.0 | 18.3 to 25.7 | 12.4 to 31.6 | 90% | 67% | 33% | 8% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 21.1 | 17.4 to 24.7 | 11.6 to 30.5 | 87% | 60% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | R | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.8 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 18.0 | 14.5 to 21.4 | 9.2 to 26.8 | 71% | 28% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 17.1 | 13.7 to 20.4 | 8.4 to 25.7 | 66% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 15.6 | 12.4 to 18.9 | 7.3 to 23.9 | 51% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 15.3 | 12.1 to 18.5 | 7.1 to 23.6 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 14.1 | 11.0 to 17.2 | 6.1 to 22.1 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Conor McKenna | FPL | 13.1 | 10.1 to 16.1 | 5.4 to 20.9 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 12.0 | 9.1 to 15.0 | 4.5 to 19.5 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.4 to 19.2 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Daniel Annable | INT | 11.2 | 8.4 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.5 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Sam Draper | RK | 11.2 | 8.3 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.5 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Darcy Fort | INT | 10.6 | 7.8 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 10.5 | 7.8 to 13.3 | 3.4 to 17.7 | 14% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | INT | 10.5 | 7.8 to 13.3 | 3.4 to 17.7 | 14% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 10.0 | 7.3 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 16.9 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 8.9 | 6.3 to 11.5 | 2.2 to 15.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 25.0 | 21.0 to 28.9 | 14.9 to 35.1 | 98% | 86% | 57% | 23% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 24.5 | 20.5 to 28.4 | 14.4 to 34.5 | 97% | 84% | 54% | 20% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 22.6 | 18.9 to 26.4 | 12.9 to 32.4 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 21.0 | 17.4 to 24.7 | 11.6 to 30.5 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 20.6 | 17.0 to 24.2 | 11.3 to 29.9 | 86% | 58% | 23% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Karl Amon | CHB | 20.6 | 16.9 to 24.2 | 11.3 to 29.9 | 86% | 58% | 23% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Will Day | C | 20.2 | 16.6 to 23.9 | 11.0 to 29.5 | 84% | 54% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | INT | 20.0 | 16.4 to 23.6 | 10.8 to 29.3 | 85% | 54% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 19.9 | 16.3 to 23.5 | 10.7 to 29.1 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 19.5 | 16.0 to 23.1 | 10.4 to 28.7 | 82% | 50% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WR | 19.4 | 15.8 to 22.9 | 10.3 to 28.5 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 17.2 | 13.8 to 20.6 | 8.6 to 25.9 | 67% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Harry Morrison | WL | 16.5 | 13.2 to 19.8 | 8.0 to 25.0 | 63% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 15.3 | 12.1 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.6 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 14.5 | 11.3 to 17.6 | 6.4 to 22.6 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.8 | 4.4 to 19.4 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.5 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 10.5 | 7.7 to 13.3 | 3.4 to 17.6 | 14% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Butler | INT | 10.5 | 7.7 to 13.3 | 3.4 to 17.6 | 13% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 10.4 | 7.7 to 13.2 | 3.4 to 17.5 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 9.7 | 7.0 to 12.4 | 2.8 to 16.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 8.6 | 6.0 to 11.1 | 2.0 to 15.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 6.7 | 4.3 to 9.0 | 0.7 to 12.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |