AFL · ROUND 22 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn
Fri 7 Aug 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 0
BRI to win, 50% chance
BRI 50%50% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 67
HIT Actual margin 67 · 66.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | C | 102 | 86 to 119 | 62 to 143 | 91% | 82% | 67% | 56% | 39% | inside our 90% range: 122 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 140 | 89% | 78% | 64% | 51% | 34% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 97 | 81 to 113 | 57 to 136 | 88% | 78% | 63% | 46% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Lachie Neale | INT | 90 | 75 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 53% | 36% | 20% | outside our 90% range: 147 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 90 | 74 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 52% | 35% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 75% | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 78 | 62 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 55% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Levi Ashcroft | R | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 55% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Sam Draper | RK | 68 | 53 to 83 | 31 to 105 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 66 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 66 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 117 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 65 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 101 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 60 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Conor McKenna | FPL | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 88 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 12 |
| Darcy Fort | INT | 52 | 39 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 52 | 38 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Eric Hipwood | INT | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Daniel Annable | INT | 45 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 79 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 96 | 80 to 111 | 56 to 135 | 88% | 76% | 61% | 44% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 95 | 79 to 111 | 56 to 134 | 88% | 76% | 60% | 42% | 29% | outside our 90% range: 53 |
| Josh Ward | R | 92 | 76 to 108 | 53 to 131 | 85% | 74% | 57% | 39% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 43% | 28% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Will Day | C | 85 | 70 to 100 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 41% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 85 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 63% | 40% | 26% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 84 | 69 to 99 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 84 | 68 to 99 | 45 to 122 | 78% | 60% | 39% | 23% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 82 | 67 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WR | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 55% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 99 |
| Karl Amon | CHB | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Cam Mackenzie | INT | 79 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 79 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 74 | 59 to 89 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Harry Morrison | WL | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 69 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 67 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 17 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Sam Butler | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 49 | 36 to 63 | 15 to 84 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 42 | 29 to 56 | 9 to 76 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14 |