AFL · ROUND 22 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn
Fri 7 Aug 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 0
BRI to win, 50% chance
BRI 50%50% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 67
HIT Actual margin 67 · 66.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 6.3 | 4.4 to 8.2 | 2.1 to 10.6 | 88% | 78% | 65% | 53% | 42% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 57% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 53% | 33% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachie Neale | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 49% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 42% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 35% | 20% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | R | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Daniel Annable | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Fort | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Draper | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 21% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Conor McKenna | FPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Day | C | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.8 to 7.9 | 73% | 59% | 39% | 26% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | INT | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 71% | 56% | 37% | 25% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 61% | 43% | 24% | 13% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 61% | 43% | 24% | 13% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 54% | 31% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Butler | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 55% | 35% | 20% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 48% | 29% | 16% | 9% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 36% | 22% | 10% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 29% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 27% | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 27% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 22% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Morrison | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Karl Amon | CHB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |