AFL · ROUND 22 · CORROBOREE GROUP OVAL MANUKA
GWS GIANTS v Gold Coast SUNS
Sun 9 Aug 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
GWS by 21
GWS to win, 78% chance
GWS 78%22% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 2
MISS Actual margin 2 · 22.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 28.5 | 24.4 to 32.7 | 17.8 to 39.3 | 97% | 89% | 72% | 40% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 28.1 | 23.9 to 32.3 | 17.4 to 38.7 | 96% | 89% | 70% | 37% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFL | 27.8 | 23.7 to 31.9 | 17.2 to 38.4 | 95% | 88% | 69% | 35% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 21.6 | 17.9 to 25.3 | 12.1 to 31.1 | 89% | 64% | 29% | 7% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 20.0 | 16.4 to 23.6 | 10.8 to 29.2 | 84% | 53% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 19.7 | 16.1 to 23.3 | 10.5 to 28.9 | 83% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 19.3 | 15.8 to 22.9 | 10.2 to 28.4 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 18.4 | 14.9 to 21.9 | 9.5 to 27.3 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | CHB | 18.1 | 14.7 to 21.6 | 9.3 to 27.0 | 72% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Toby Bedford | HFFR | 17.4 | 14.0 to 20.8 | 8.7 to 26.1 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Harry Rowston | R | 17.1 | 13.8 to 20.5 | 8.5 to 25.8 | 66% | 31% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Joe Fonti | INT | 17.0 | 13.6 to 20.4 | 8.4 to 25.6 | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | HFFL | 16.5 | 13.2 to 19.8 | 8.0 to 25.0 | 63% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 14.6 | 11.5 to 17.8 | 6.5 to 22.7 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 13.1 | 10.1 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 20.9 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 13.0 | 10.0 to 16.0 | 5.3 to 20.8 | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | INT | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.6 | 31% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 11.6 | 8.7 to 14.5 | 4.2 to 19.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Callum Brown | FPR | 11.1 | 8.2 to 13.9 | 3.8 to 18.3 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 10.9 | 8.1 to 13.7 | 3.7 to 18.1 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Josaia Delana | INT | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Riley Hamilton | INT | 10.1 | 7.3 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | CHF | 9.7 | 7.0 to 12.4 | 2.8 to 16.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | C | 27.4 | 23.3 to 31.5 | 16.9 to 38.0 | 95% | 87% | 67% | 33% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Matt Rowell | RR | 26.9 | 22.8 to 31.0 | 16.4 to 37.3 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 28% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 40.0 |
| John Noble | HBFR | 26.5 | 22.5 to 30.6 | 16.1 to 36.9 | 95% | 85% | 61% | 25% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Touk Miller | WR | 24.9 | 20.9 to 28.8 | 14.8 to 35.0 | 97% | 86% | 57% | 23% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | FB | 22.6 | 18.8 to 26.4 | 12.9 to 32.3 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Christian Petracca | FPL | 21.9 | 18.1 to 25.6 | 12.3 to 31.5 | 90% | 66% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFL | 20.4 | 16.8 to 24.1 | 11.1 to 29.7 | 84% | 56% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | WL | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.8 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 18.5 | 15.0 to 22.0 | 9.6 to 27.4 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 18.0 | 14.6 to 21.4 | 9.2 to 26.8 | 72% | 29% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 15.4 | 12.2 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.7 | 48% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | INT | 14.1 | 11.0 to 17.2 | 6.1 to 22.1 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Sam Collins | BPR | 13.2 | 10.2 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 21.0 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Bailey Humphrey | R | 12.5 | 9.6 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.2 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.8 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 10.4 | 7.6 to 13.1 | 3.3 to 17.4 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Ben Long | HFFL | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.6 | 3.0 to 16.8 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Charlie Ballard | INT | 9.0 | 6.4 to 11.6 | 2.3 to 15.7 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jake Rogers | HFFR | 8.7 | 6.1 to 11.3 | 2.1 to 15.3 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jy Farrar | INT | 8.7 | 6.1 to 11.2 | 2.1 to 15.2 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ethan Read | CHF | 8.5 | 5.9 to 11.0 | 1.9 to 15.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Ben King | FPR | 7.8 | 5.3 to 10.2 | 1.5 to 14.1 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jed Walter | FF | 7.6 | 5.2 to 10.1 | 1.4 to 13.9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |