AFL · ROUND 22 · CORROBOREE GROUP OVAL MANUKA
GWS GIANTS v Gold Coast SUNS
Sun 9 Aug 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
GWS by 21
GWS to win, 78% chance
GWS 78%22% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 2
MISS Actual margin 2 · 22.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFL | 102 | 86 to 118 | 62 to 142 | 91% | 81% | 67% | 56% | 38% | inside our 50% range: 105 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 52% | 36% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 97 | 81 to 113 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 47% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 43% | 28% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 62% | 40% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 74 | 59 to 89 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Toby Bedford | HFFR | 74 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 27 |
| Harry Rowston | R | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Harry Himmelberg | CHB | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Stephen Coniglio | HFFL | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 31% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 67 | 52 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Kieren Briggs | INT | 67 | 52 to 82 | 30 to 104 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 67 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Joe Fonti | INT | 66 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 42% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 63 | 48 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 22 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 59 | 45 to 73 | 24 to 95 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Callum Brown | FPR | 58 | 44 to 72 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Max Gruzewski | CHF | 56 | 41 to 70 | 20 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Josaia Delana | INT | 49 | 35 to 62 | 14 to 83 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Riley Hamilton | INT | 45 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 79 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Rowell | RR | 103 | 87 to 119 | 63 to 143 | 91% | 82% | 68% | 56% | 39% | outside our 90% range: 182 |
| John Noble | HBFR | 102 | 86 to 118 | 62 to 142 | 91% | 81% | 67% | 56% | 38% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Noah Anderson | C | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 140 | 89% | 79% | 64% | 51% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 107 |
| Touk Miller | WR | 89 | 74 to 105 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 70% | 51% | 33% | 19% | outside our 90% range: 131 |
| Bodhi Uwland | FB | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 77% | 59% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Christian Petracca | FPL | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 39 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFL | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 76 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 95 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 55% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Zeke Uwland | WL | 72 | 57 to 86 | 35 to 108 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 24 |
| Bailey Humphrey | R | 66 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Leonardo Lombard | INT | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Sam Collins | BPR | 57 | 42 to 71 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Ben Long | HFFL | 55 | 40 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Ben King | FPR | 52 | 38 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Jed Walter | FF | 51 | 38 to 65 | 17 to 86 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Ethan Read | CHF | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Jake Rogers | HFFR | 46 | 32 to 60 | 12 to 80 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Jy Farrar | INT | 44 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 44 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Charlie Ballard | INT | 42 | 28 to 55 | 8 to 75 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |