AFL · ROUND 22 · CORROBOREE GROUP OVAL MANUKA
GWS GIANTS v Gold Coast SUNS
Sun 9 Aug 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
GWS by 21
GWS to win, 78% chance
GWS 78%22% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 2
MISS Actual margin 2 · 22.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Idun | BPR | 6.6 | 4.5 to 8.6 | 2.0 to 11.1 | 82% | 70% | 55% | 42% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.2 | 1.8 to 10.7 | 78% | 66% | 51% | 36% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFL | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.2 | 1.7 to 10.6 | 78% | 65% | 50% | 36% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | CHB | 6.0 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 78% | 65% | 53% | 39% | 26% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joe Fonti | INT | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 74% | 57% | 41% | 30% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.7 | 67% | 55% | 40% | 27% | 20% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 61% | 44% | 32% | 21% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 45% | 32% | 20% | 11% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 51% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | CHF | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 53% | 35% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 45% | 31% | 20% | 11% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Callum Brown | FPR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 35% | 19% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Rowston | R | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 43% | 27% | 17% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 41% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 25% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | HFFL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 23% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 23% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Riley Hamilton | INT | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 18% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josaia Delana | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Toby Bedford | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Noble | HBFR | 6.0 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.6 to 10.4 | 74% | 60% | 46% | 31% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.2 | 77% | 64% | 49% | 37% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | FB | 5.4 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 69% | 52% | 38% | 26% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Sam Collins | BPR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 60% | 43% | 31% | 21% | 11% | - |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 49% | 29% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Noah Anderson | C | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 53% | 39% | 26% | 16% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 47% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ben King | FPR | 3.7 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 43% | 26% | 15% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | WL | 3.7 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 44% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Ballard | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 42% | 27% | 17% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 33% | 21% | 13% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jed Walter | FF | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 43% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ben Long | HFFL | 3.2 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 27% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Touk Miller | WR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 37% | 22% | 10% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ethan Read | CHF | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 25% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Christian Petracca | FPL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 20% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jy Farrar | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 21% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | R | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matt Rowell | RR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Rogers | HFFR | 1.7 | 0.6 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |