AFL · ROUND 22 · CORROBOREE GROUP OVAL MANUKA
GWS GIANTS v Gold Coast SUNS
Sun 9 Aug 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
GWS by 21
GWS to win, 78% chance
GWS 78%22% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 2
MISS Actual margin 2 · 22.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 67% | 49% | 33% | 23% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Toby Bedford | HFFR | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 67% | 49% | 34% | 23% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.7 | 50% | 28% | 16% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 49% | 30% | 19% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harry Rowston | R | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 48% | 31% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josaia Delana | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 43% | 25% | 13% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 43% | 25% | 13% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 46% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 38% | 22% | 11% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Riley Hamilton | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFL | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 30% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Joe Fonti | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Callum Brown | FPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 13% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | CHF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | CHB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Rowell | RR | 6.3 | 4.4 to 8.2 | 2.1 to 10.5 | 88% | 78% | 65% | 53% | 42% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Touk Miller | WR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.5 to 7.2 | 65% | 48% | 27% | 15% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Noah Anderson | C | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 59% | 40% | 23% | 13% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | R | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 37% | 21% | 12% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 38% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 29% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Christian Petracca | FPL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 16% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ben Long | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jake Rogers | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| John Noble | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jy Farrar | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | WL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 20% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | FB | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Charlie Ballard | INT | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ethan Read | CHF | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ben King | FPR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Collins | BPR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jed Walter | FF | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |