AFL · ROUND 22 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Essendon
Sat 8 Aug 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 58
GEE to win, 97% chance
GEE 97%3% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 67
HIT Actual margin 67 · 9.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 33.7 | 29.2 to 38.2 | 22.2 to 45.2 | 100% | 97% | 89% | 70% | 43% | inside our 50% range: 38.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | HBFR | 26.5 | 22.4 to 30.5 | 16.1 to 36.9 | 95% | 85% | 60% | 25% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPL | 25.2 | 21.2 to 29.2 | 15.0 to 35.4 | 98% | 87% | 59% | 24% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 23.9 | 20.1 to 27.8 | 14.0 to 33.9 | 97% | 82% | 50% | 19% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 23.9 | 20.0 to 27.7 | 13.9 to 33.8 | 97% | 81% | 50% | 18% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 23.6 | 19.8 to 27.5 | 13.7 to 33.5 | 94% | 76% | 42% | 15% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 23.6 | 19.7 to 27.4 | 13.7 to 33.5 | 94% | 76% | 42% | 15% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 22.1 | 18.4 to 25.9 | 12.5 to 31.7 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | FPL | 20.0 | 16.4 to 23.6 | 10.8 to 29.3 | 85% | 54% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 19.5 | 15.9 to 23.0 | 10.3 to 28.6 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 19.0 | 15.5 to 22.5 | 10.0 to 28.0 | 77% | 40% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | WR | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.8 | 76% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.8 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Jhye Clark | BPR | 18.7 | 15.2 to 22.2 | 9.8 to 27.7 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Sam De Koning | RK | 18.5 | 15.0 to 22.0 | 9.6 to 27.5 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | INT | 15.2 | 12.0 to 18.5 | 7.0 to 23.5 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Jack Henry | CHB | 14.1 | 11.0 to 17.2 | 6.1 to 22.1 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | INT | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.1 | 6.0 to 22.0 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Oliver Henry | CHF | 13.5 | 10.4 to 16.5 | 5.6 to 21.3 | 37% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jack Martin | INT | 13.4 | 10.3 to 16.4 | 5.6 to 21.2 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 13.4 | 10.4 to 16.5 | 5.6 to 21.2 | 37% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 13.3 | 10.2 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 11.7 | 8.8 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.1 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 30.4 | 26.1 to 34.7 | 19.4 to 41.4 | 98% | 92% | 80% | 54% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Archie Roberts | CHB | 29.2 | 25.0 to 33.4 | 18.4 to 40.0 | 97% | 90% | 74% | 45% | 18% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Will Setterfield | INT | 25.1 | 21.1 to 29.1 | 15.0 to 35.3 | 98% | 87% | 58% | 24% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Sam Durham | C | 24.8 | 20.9 to 28.8 | 14.7 to 35.0 | 97% | 85% | 57% | 23% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 22.9 | 19.1 to 26.7 | 13.1 to 32.7 | 92% | 72% | 38% | 12% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 22.5 | 18.7 to 26.3 | 12.8 to 32.2 | 92% | 70% | 35% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | R | 21.1 | 17.4 to 24.8 | 11.7 to 30.6 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 20.3 | 16.7 to 23.9 | 11.0 to 29.5 | 84% | 54% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Zak Johnson | BPR | 19.6 | 16.1 to 23.2 | 10.5 to 28.8 | 83% | 51% | 15% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFL | 18.9 | 15.4 to 22.4 | 9.9 to 27.9 | 76% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | HBFL | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.8 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 17.4 | 14.1 to 20.8 | 8.7 to 26.2 | 69% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Jaxon Artemis | WR | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.4 | 7.7 to 24.6 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 16.0 | 12.8 to 19.3 | 7.6 to 24.5 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Archie Perkins | INT | 15.7 | 12.5 to 19.0 | 7.4 to 24.1 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 14.2 | 11.1 to 17.4 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 43% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | WL | 12.4 | 9.5 to 15.4 | 4.8 to 20.0 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | HFFR | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 12.0 | 9.1 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.5 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | INT | 11.2 | 8.4 to 14.1 | 3.9 to 18.5 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Vigo Visentini | RK | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.6 | 3.6 to 18.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 10.5 | 7.7 to 13.2 | 3.4 to 17.5 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Rhys Unwin | INT | 10.2 | 7.4 to 12.9 | 3.2 to 17.2 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |