AFL · ROUND 22 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Essendon
Sat 8 Aug 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 58
GEE to win, 97% chance
GEE 97%3% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 67
HIT Actual margin 67 · 9.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 121 | 104 to 138 | 80 to 163 | 98% | 95% | 89% | 80% | 67% | inside our 50% range: 132 |
| Tanner Bruhn | HBFR | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 48% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 47% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Tom Stewart | BPL | 95 | 79 to 111 | 56 to 134 | 88% | 76% | 60% | 42% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 91 | 76 to 107 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 74% | 56% | 38% | 21% | outside our 90% range: 33 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 91 | 75 to 106 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 72% | 54% | 37% | 21% | outside our 90% range: 46 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 89 | 73 to 105 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 69% | 51% | 33% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| James Worpel | INT | 88 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 84% | 66% | 48% | 30% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Shaun Mannagh | FPL | 87 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 126 | 82% | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Sam De Koning | RK | 80 | 65 to 96 | 42 to 118 | 71% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Mark O'Connor | WR | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Jhye Clark | BPR | 78 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 95 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 33 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 78 | 62 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Oliver Henry | CHF | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Mark Blicavs | INT | 67 | 52 to 82 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Jack Henry | CHB | 67 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 65 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | INT | 59 | 45 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 25% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Jack Martin | INT | 58 | 44 to 72 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 19 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 108 | 91 to 124 | 67 to 148 | 93% | 87% | 75% | 62% | 48% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Archie Roberts | CHB | 97 | 81 to 113 | 57 to 136 | 89% | 78% | 64% | 46% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Sam Durham | C | 93 | 78 to 109 | 54 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 40% | 26% | outside our 90% range: 51 |
| Will Setterfield | INT | 87 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 126 | 83% | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 62% | 40% | 25% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 37 |
| Dyson Sharp | R | 82 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 121 | 76% | 57% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 102 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 78 | 63 to 93 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFL | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Jaxon Prior | HBFL | 71 | 56 to 85 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 31% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 49% | 30% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Zak Johnson | BPR | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 25 |
| Archie Perkins | INT | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Jaxon Artemis | WR | 61 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 97 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 60 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | HFFR | 56 | 41 to 70 | 20 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Vigo Visentini | RK | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 100 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 88 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Max Kondogiannis | WL | 50 | 37 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Hussien El Achkar | INT | 46 | 33 to 60 | 12 to 80 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Rhys Unwin | INT | 44 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13 |