AFL · ROUND 22 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Essendon
Sat 8 Aug 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 58
GEE to win, 97% chance
GEE 97%3% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 67
HIT Actual margin 67 · 9.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Neale | FF | 2.3 | 1.4 to 3.2 | 0.3 to 4.4 | 81% | 57% | 34% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Oliver Henry | CHF | 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.0 | 73% | 50% | 29% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | FPL | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 58% | 29% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 70% | 40% | 16% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 44% | 20% | 6% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Martin | INT | 1.3 | 0.6 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 63% | 33% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 38% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | INT | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 48% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 33% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 29% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 21% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Henry | CHB | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jhye Clark | BPR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 22% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam De Koning | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 60% | 38% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 1.7 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 71% | 40% | 18% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 34% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 26% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Archie Perkins | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 27% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Durham | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 31% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jaxon Artemis | WR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rhys Unwin | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 19% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Vigo Visentini | RK | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 25% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 28% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Will Setterfield | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Archie Roberts | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zak Johnson | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |