AFL · ROUND 22 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Essendon
Sat 8 Aug 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 58
GEE to win, 97% chance
GEE 97%3% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 67
HIT Actual margin 67 · 9.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.7 | 2.0 to 11.2 | 83% | 71% | 56% | 43% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 5.4 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 69% | 53% | 38% | 26% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 5.4 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 69% | 52% | 38% | 26% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.1 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 62% | 46% | 33% | 22% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPL | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 61% | 44% | 32% | 21% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jack Henry | CHB | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 59% | 43% | 30% | 17% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | WR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 59% | 42% | 28% | 18% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 59% | 42% | 25% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | HBFR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 54% | 37% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 60% | 44% | 30% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 52% | 34% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Oliver Henry | CHF | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 46% | 31% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jhye Clark | BPR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 50% | 35% | 24% | 13% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jack Martin | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 34% | 22% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 37% | 23% | 13% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 29% | 17% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 29% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | FPL | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 22% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam De Koning | RK | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 61% | 44% | 32% | 21% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 72% | 55% | 39% | 27% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 53% | 38% | 25% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Archie Roberts | CHB | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 54% | 38% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 46% | 28% | 17% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Archie Perkins | INT | 4.2 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 45% | 29% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | HBFL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 43% | 28% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 51% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 42% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zak Johnson | BPR | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 52% | 37% | 25% | 15% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 45% | 31% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 38% | 26% | 16% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Durham | C | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.9 | 37% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Will Setterfield | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 39% | 25% | 16% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | R | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 34% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFL | 2.8 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | WL | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jaxon Artemis | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Rhys Unwin | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Vigo Visentini | RK | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |